As you know, I live in Venezuela. You are about to read the possible consequences of an armed conflict with our neighboring Colombia. Most of these consequences of a Colombian war are to be expected. However, there’s a peculiar situation down here I’ve never seen before – a regular army cooperating with irregular forces. This has never happened in South America before, as far as I know.
I will avoid quoting names for safety reasons, as these people are so widely known that you should be aware of who they are without my placing myself at risk. Some of these people are now prey for anyone looking for a few million dollars reward.
It’s not like Venezuelan forces are waiting to go on a pillaging spree.
Far from that. Many of them are decent young men.
I am a hardcore pacifist. I have seen the consequences of war without even having been involved in one. I know how gunpowder smells, and I recognize the blood-freezing sound of dozens of FALs chambering a round simultaneously, while you are nearby and unarmed.
I saw the fear in mothers’ eyes as they hugged their children and ran to their apartments back in the Caracas in 1992 when Hugo’s infamous coup d’etat took place. I witnessed airplanes shooting missiles at Miraflores, the government palace, from the apartment windows where I had a rented room.
I talked to a couple of soldiers who would become college students after participating as non-volunteers in the coup – forced by the communist agents to grab the weapon and get on board the troop transports. They chose to go to University instead of insisting on pursuing a military career after discharging without benefits because of their involvement in the coup. Quite a wise choice, as the political polarization of our armed force became a reality, and they are practically the (armed) custody of the “Socialist” Party. Old news.
During the democratic era, military personnel did not vote by law. They had custody of documents to audit the elections and keep the democracy machinery working. Nowadays, their only reason to exist is to defend the Party.
A few other (armed) groups were created: the equivalent of the TonTon Macoutes, and are foreign to our ruling Constitution. Do you think I am exaggerating? Not at all.
The Intl. Criminal Court designated and sent Venezuela a public prosecutor (an international general attorney), just for the record. There is a request for a trial because of the hundreds of civilians shot in the demonstrations since 2014. Whether this will result in something positive for our country remains to be seen. Gadaffi was mob-executed much before the Court decided what to do with him. But Libyans are a different fur and were outraged enough to do what they did.
Most Venezuelans are descendants from traumatized Spanish/Italian/Portuguese WW2 migrants who ducked under a table when listening to a gunshot. That is the reason these violent neo-commies are still holding power. Youngsters participating in a real war? Unlikely. Keep reading, please, and I will expose my hypothesis.
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This little preamble is for you to sense the regional atmosphere these days.
There is currently a feeling of relative peace. Is it going to last? Well, the white-hot, incendiary rhetoric of some of the major figures within our country, we can see they are looking for trouble.
This rhetoric is even understandable. What better way to fly away to another country, escaping the international legal system that is currently hunting them due to their involvement with (ahem) particular “substances?” A war could be the perfect vehicle to escape in.
This is why I have the gut feeling that an armed conflict between our nations is on the horizon.
This will be the first war after two centuries of relative peace. Our independence war and the later turmoil that ended by devastating the country was from 1840 to 1890. The ones with nothing to lose and plenty to win are those controlling the speech to their hundreds of blindfolded, starving followers who do not even realize they will be cannon fodder.
Sure, the younger (and dumber ones) are already brainwashed to believe all the mumbo-jumbo the communists have been using to mesmerize weaker minds since the 30s. They will jump right into the fighting. I don’t see them as being as large of a threat, though.
The real fighters – that could do some serious harm – will be the irregular troops that found a haven in our country back in the Uncle Hugo era. These have a historic archenemy in the regular Army of their own country, Colombia. Add in foreign mercenaries (Syrians, Iranians, Bosnians) holding Venezuelan passports to the equation. Then the whole situation is a powder keg to blow up this same year.
These people need to take advantage of the senile leadership of the USA and all the problems your food chain supply will face, just like China is doing. The USA and the rest of the world seemingly never paid enough attention to the fake IDs provided to mercenaries.
It sounds like a perfect excuse for the politicians to say, “We cannot/shall not intervene in that conflict (even though Colombia is a NATO member) because we have more important issues at home.” This is exactly what the Islam/Commie world alliance is expecting.
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Not your problem?
I see with sadness many US nationals writing openly in forums and Internet sites, “They chose communism, let them enjoy it. It is not our problem”.
Well, it seems this year “our” commies could become a REAL problem for the US. Why? Because Russia will not leave the Ukraine without a fight. They could create a conflict within Venezuela and Colombia as retaliation and try to threaten the USA. Destabilizing the main entrance to South America (and harassing NATO) would be attractive for Russians.
With proper management, our food production (as if it was in the best part of the 90s) could rival the best ones in the region.
Now, we need to talk about the consequences.
Under the current circumstances and with the elections process in Colombia so close, the leftists will do whatever they can to grab power without shooting. If the leftist candidate does not win, this war will be a fact.
It is the only way they could take over Colombia if they lose the elections, and they need the firepower of Venezuela. Harvesting Venezuelan firepower is one of the main factors that makes me think that the possibilities of this war are higher than what we might believe, especially when you add in the weak, unpredictable USA leadership.
USA intelligence should already know this pretty well, though.
The immediate consequences for us would be awful. It would become the perfect excuse to grab EVERYTHING they need for war without paying a dime. Cattle, fuel, gas, supplies, medicines, alcohol, and canned food – all gone.
Refusing or opposing them will mean a shot in the back of the neck and a common grave. Any public anti-war demonstrations will be crushed without any possibility of the world at large knowing because of the Internet blackout. It is what they would love to do with everyone who does not bend the knee.
Declaring war and doing what Russia did seems to be the next logical step, facing the crossroad they are on. They know that removing the price tag over their necks will not be a bargaining chip, and eventually, they will have to engage in dialogue.
But this is the scenario I am worried about…
The only means to avoid problems with troopers on the loose would be to hunker down so deep in the forest (and this would be a double-edged weapon) that no one could follow. I am particularly aware of the certainty that most of the regular Army will not go to war.
That is what the foreign mercenaries and guerrillas are for in the first place. With the formidable resources and funding of a regular army, these could be a real threat even for an experienced army like the Colombian one. But with mercs and guerillas? You end up with fighters who will not be subject to war rules or treaties. Nobody will put a hold on their behavior. They will do as they please. There are no means to know who they are.
What can we do?
In light of recent events, I am talking with like-minded fellows about bug-out and contingency plans, but the main problem down here is that we are all practically broke all the time. Unless we find a comfortable cave somewhere, building cost is a project killer.
The thing with caves is the rest of the potential tenants. My land is red monkey territory. They can be large and deadly with the strength of five grown men. Those bad-tempered critters fight fang to fang and nail to nail with leopards and pumas. Hunkering down (or caving in) is not very attractive.
However, staying in the cities will be much worse.
War means a missile could hit any place at any moment. Most of our population lives in the major cities. An uncontrolled country-wide exodus would be a disaster. It would mean unprepared, starved, thirsty, ill refugees fleeing away by whatever means they can to the countryside by the tens of thousands. It did not happen with the crisis, but if missiles start to rain down, it will.
Unless one is out of the way of the walkers, the risk is very high. Those small cottages close to the main roads will have a hard time unless they can have some form of defending themselves. That is nearly impossible. Any civilian with a gun out in the open will risk receiving a shot on sight. They will not bother with any investigation to discriminate between friends or foes. It is war, after all.
Rape and murder will skyrocket.
Rape/murder sprees, all of the sinister deviations history has shown when row after row of armed men walk the roads by the thousands they do as they please. An unarmed, scared population and mercenaries roaming around are an awful combination.
Rationing of everything is another consequence, with a 95% chance of happening.
Total rationing of electric power will be in place, this time for real. Aside from crafting bug-out plans with others, I’m also trying to build up a battery rack to power up at least a fan, my computing/radio equipment, a fridge, and some lamps. I think I could get maybe eight hours of electricity per day throughout the working week, with luck. Four hours is probable on weekends. That is my best estimate.
These people know that once grid power goes out, people will not be able to work to get groceries and medicines, and turmoil will spread in a few hours. Very likely, they will shut down the Internet, too. Again, commercial transactions will be a pain in the backside. Multiplying everything to levels never seen is what I expect if this happens. Bottled gas, a commodity with supply issues that were solved, to a degree, will surely go again under a rationing scheme to the discretion of some illiterate state worker doing as they are told, or else…
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Life will become much harder for those without a VERY secluded place to raise chickens, rabbits, fruits, and vegetables.
If digging my pond was a priority before arrival, imagine now.
Communications? Landlines will be the only ones left remaining. These are to monitor and linked directly to a fixed location. A banana republic tyrant’s dream. I do not know what will happen to HAM operators, but I would not risk myself by licensing as one. Gear will have to be reinstalled swiftly in an undisclosed location. Even shortwave receivers could look like a threat.
I have been too busy to worry too much, to be honest. Running inventory, trying to see what we could rebuild to sell and what to assist us in the cottage labor, calculating how much we will need for the materials, and how much could be collected has taken a lot of my time. We are already working on the piping of the upper floor bathroom to a 220-liter tank. I have been cleaning some debris and recycling some soda bottles to build a rain screen, as well.
I do not try to portray myself as an international analyst because I am not. I just know how those responsible for this disaster think and act. And one of the things they seemingly desperately want is to attack the USA to avoid international justice. I do not believe in any kind of internal resistance. This is not stamped in the genetic code of these generations.
One of the most likely medium-term consequences is breaking the country in two. The gold mines will be for them and the Chinese/Russian/Turkeys/Iranians. The bad news is that this part has uranium also, and that would be very bad for the Western world in a few years.
I only can hope that, if such a negative scene becomes a reality, the population finally reacts and does whatever is needed. Whatever that choice could be, it will be for the greater good.
And I expect as well that our family, friends, and acquaintances will remain intact and safe.
I will leave a few links for you to analyze by yourselves. It is a sensitive topic these days, and I tend to write about it with my heart instead of with my brain.
I prefer avoiding attracting unwanted attention, which I am not sure will happen after publishing this. Please, understand my reluctance to make comments about the links below. Especially the last one, which appears to be a very real threat to everyone.
Stay tuned.
What are your thoughts?
Do you foresee another war erupting, this one much closer to home? Do you think the effects on us would be damaging? Share your thoughts in the comments.
About Jose
Jose is an upper middle class professional. He is a former worker of the oil state company with a Bachelor’s degree from one of the best national Universities. He has an old but in good shape SUV, a good 150 square meters house in a nice neighborhood, in a small but (formerly) prosperous city with two middle size malls. Jose is a prepper and shares his eyewitness accounts and survival stories from the collapse of his beloved Venezuela. Jose and his younger kid are currently back in Venezuela, after the intention of setting up a new life in another country didn’t go well. The SARSCOV2 re-shaped the labor market and South American economy so he decided to give it a try to homestead in the mountains, and make a living as best as possible. But this time in his own land, and surrounded by family, friends and acquaintances, with all the gear and equipment collected, as the initial plan was.
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The author seems to be talking about the effects that will happen to Venezuela. Colombia has no aspirations on Venezuela. Venezuela will have to attack Colombia. Colombia only has to defend. Colombia’s military and National Police are veterans of decades of fighting insurgents. After the capitulation of the FARC, they have been able to rest and resupply. As a resident of Colombia, I don’t see Venezuela as being able to gain an inch of Colombia’s sovereign territory. Geography determines points and avenues of ingress, all will be monitored by land based, air and satellite surveillance. Talk about communists and capitalists all you like, when the nation is threatened, all will turn with unified effort to defend the Patria.
Refuge Man, what you say makes sense. To J.G. Martinez, sad to say but your pacifist point of view is likely a ‘dead’ end, pun intended. I lived in Venezuela when I was a boy and I have great personal affection for the country. Your explanation that Venezuelan’s are predisposed to not fight makes some sense.
But really? When your children have ALREADY been starving and women raped, you still wave the pacifist flag?
By relying exclusively on Our Father in Heaven, such a true pacifist is to be admired. This is not my nature, though. I’m an old man now and on the rare occasions when I have been attacked by a person, I have fought back aggressively, willing to do great harm. I have been ready and willing to protect others against great odds. Thankfully, I have not been alone.
I am concerned that most Venezuelan ‘pacifists’ are not true but are simply explaining away their fear. In the meantime, armed and experienced Cubans, Mercenaries, Iranians, Russians, etc. have gotten a foothold.
You say you and others may be forced into the forest, jungle, caves, etc. and may become victims of jaguars, pumas, red monkeys, etc. But it is there that greatest fight force in the world can and may be should be assembled. I think that was Oscar Perez’s mistake. He miscalculated the shocking amount of pacifism. Instead of hiding around in the poor neighborhoods he should have gone into the jungle, forest, mountains, etc. But his lack of knowledge and training in this area I think was his undoing.
Grivas of Cyprus, Fidel Castro, Mao Tse Tung, Viet Cong, Mujahideen, Taliban and others prove what I say is true that the poorly trained, poorly armed, out-of-shape freedom/guerilla fighting force is still vastly superior to even the best trained of any army. Such a fighting force, like Oscar Perez and true pacifism, I believe would also be a gift from Our Father in Heaven.
Hey there!. It´s great to find someone who understands our idiosyncrasy. I´m not exactly related to those migrants: my ancestors are boers and generally people who don´t refuse a good fight. What they did to Perez was the communist way to pacify and terrify possible enemies: get someone into a circle and smash him to death while the others look petrified in terror.
There are millions of millions of cash money to buy whatever moral they want. And they do not hesitate. If it is not enough, then they will disappear the martyr for ever. This has happened too many times now.
This said…
There is an old saying that I like a lot: “You are slave of what you say, but a master of what you don´t say”. 😉
Be safe!
You are right Refuge.
I believe that my intention was to inform that this “war” would be more of a diversion and deception strategy to strengthen the grip over the social control they already have. I don’t know what would happen once Putin says “we have our nucs positioned 10 minutes flight from Florida”…
I agree, Refuge Man.
Jose, I would not presume to question anything you have seen and experienced there. I lived in Colombia and visited Venezuela (family) a number of times, but it was long ago. I did observe both Colombians and Venezuelans up close and came to a number of conclusions about the differences between the populations (some of them quite humorous), very close to what you’ve stated.
But I have to correct you on a few things. One, Colombia is NOT a NATO member. There are 30 members of NATO, all European countries plus Canada and the US. Colombia is what they call a “Partner Across the Globe,” kind of an association without the benefits (Article 5 Collective Defense) or the obligations (mutual defense of all members, supplying arms and troops, etc). Definitely NOT a member. The other “Partners Across the Globe” include Iraq, Afghanistan, South Korea, Mongolia, and Pakistan, to name a few. Do you think that if someone attacked Pakistan NATO would go in, guns blazing, to defend them? Membership makes a difference. Having said that, Colombia has given the US use of its land, bases, ports, etc., and is for all intents and purposes (other than mutual defense) a NATO ally.
I really believe that if Putin had the luxury of pre-February financial reserves or military you might have something. But he doesn’t. Putin is hiring as many Chechen and Syrian mercenaries and guerillas as he can for the war he REALLY needs to win. Much as he’d like to annoy the US in Latin America right now, his priorities are elsewhere. If he loses all his objectives in Ukraine, nothing he does in VZ or CO will matter.
I’ve never thought, “well, too bad for them, they chose this way, let them live with it.” I’d like to think it’s because I am a good person and see how interconnected we all are, but the truth is, none of my family who suffered immeasurably asked for, voted for, supported, or in any way condoned this criminal farce of a government in VZ. Even if they did, they (and you) are human beings and worthy of our help and concern. But the fact is, I seriously VZ will invade CO like Russia’s invaded Ukraine. Everything cuts the other way here. It makes no sense otherwise.
What is it you want the US, or the American people to do here? And, I respectfully suggest you not go all goo-goo eyed over the last American president, who talked big and did little, and changed no peoples’ lives for the better there. Our “senile leadership” has been doing a yeoman’s job so far in this Ukraine crisis. I think they are up for the task in south America between CO and VZ.
I’m sorry to say this, because it’s a cold, hard truth for someone there in the middle of this, but: Russia/the US/NATO et al. have much bigger fish to fry right now.
Take care, Jose.
Thanks Lorraine. I might confused the Colombia status on NATO; that´s not exactly my area of expertise and I have to apology for that. TBH I hope your analysis (for our own safety) be much more accurate than mine. I´ve been trying to research the possibilities of a 1962-like crisis, but former military chiefs seem to be reluctant or know nothing about this matter. I just saw in the news that sanctions has been lifted on one of the main financial operators of the 180 cronies…Jeez. This is not beneficial for us. Thing is, once you know how guerrillas operate…it´s like accepting the Pol Pot-like Cambodian nightmare could suddenly appear in the fields I use to go with my dad to work…It is a real possibility. Even worst, the ones that should defend us civilians are ALLIED with them.
How this is going to end…only God knows. There is one sector though, that seems to be willing to “negotiate”, but the ones controlling the other sector of the military forces definitely won´t, and those are the dangerous ones. They are unpredictable and their action radius, influence and power is reducing quickly. And they have price over their heads, too, to top it off.
Anyways, let´s see what happens, and keep prepping for the times ahead. Your impressions did calm a little bit my nerves though.
Be safe!
Please explain how the Organic Prepper is defunded when I still see advertising. If it’s because the money is flowing in but not to you, can’t you re-create the website elsewhere? You still won’t get the money but the ‘bad’ guys won’t either. Then wouldn’t viewers be more likely to send money also?
We have a different ad network than the one that was defunded.
Jose, lo siento las cosas que han pasado a su pais. Having lived in both Countries years ago, I witnessed several “Golpes” in Colombia and general strike in Venezuela while in Caracas. On a tactical basis, attacking Colombia with irregulars and/or the Ven army requires lots of land to cover, a certain Andean mountain chain with two cordilleras and significant jungles in between. Colombians definitely know how to fight insurgents and have a granddaddy in el Norte to help. Further, blockading ports won’t work well since Colombia has fronts on 2 oceans. So a civil fomented insurrection is more likely. Last Venezuela is vulnerable with Maracaibo. So, who wins? Both lose too much. Stay mobile dude.
Dear Charles,
Thanks for that. I never had any training (other than the field stripping of those old 70s FALs similar to the South African ones, LOL), and the Beretta 92F (VZ military version) to clean back in our pre-military high school classes. Oh, maybe crawling a little bit with the FAL under a few ropes tied up here and there. I don´t remember too much. That was over 30 years ago. Thing is, the ones going to war would have nothing to lose. Their own life and future would be threatened. And we would be caught in the middle unless we can hunker down deep enough. I really hope that civilians finally use their numbers. I´m too old to fight, and too tired to run, but…well you probably know the rest.
Hehehe.
If you come back to VZ some time once this mess is over, please let me know.
Stay safe!