by Selco Begovic
Co-Author of SHTF Survival Bootcamp
One of the most common questions I hear is where we are all heading?
In some way, you are in the place where I was 30 years ago, so I can actually “feel” how are you feeling.
It is a time where and when polarization among people is so strong that you actually can sense “blood” in the air. At the same time, there are new hopes, new leaders, new great promises, changes, and what-not that for some might look like new times are coming.
New good times.
All that is usually just crap.
From my experience whenever great promises are in the air together with strong polarization among people that usually means common folks (like you and me) will lose a lot and will be left to ask themselves later, “What was all this about?” Because there is history and there is what actually happened.
In other ways, these times are different, so new factors are involved.
Blacklists
What you call “canceling” is similar to something that has happened before.
“Blacklists” or “blacklisting” is a phenomenon that is not new, not at all, but what is different now is fact that we live in a time when everybody is constantly “plugged in”, online, hooked on a constant run for fresh news and similar.
We are conditioned to look for new info all the time, breaking news, newest event or research, it is not even important that a lot of that is simply fake or a spin on the same story. For the majority of people, the most important thing there that they are constantly “plugged in”.
Now, add to the fact that we are being ruled by the media, and the media is being ruled by whoever has more power or a more popular agenda. In short this “blacklisting” is brought to perfection in your current setting.
The wrong kind of perfection.
How free is your speech really?
So, who can tell me how free speech is actually when someone is telling you what is wrong or right to say?
- Freedom of speech is actually only when is telling, writing, or yelling things that you like?
- Otherwise I will lose my job?
- Or be labeled as a terrorist?
Does anyone remember history classes about the rising of the Nazi party in the 20s and 30s of the 20th century, when kids were indoctrinated by rulers to “snitch” on their own parents if their mom or dad talked something against the ruling(Nazi) party? Do you remember how all that indoctrination eventually ended?
All this might sound like an overreaction to you, BUT sometimes the path between “they are wrong, let’s forbid them to talk freely” to “they are less valuable, let’s erase them” is short and fast.
And it’s not even about the political option, party, or view. I think the polarization and hate and fear is at that level when it is not important who rules anymore, because most of them will choose a similar path.
Things have gone too far.
The Preppersphere
The Preppersphere is in a mess and there are several reasons for that.
Preppers don’t want to be portrayed as “troublemakers” and end up on one of those “blacklists”, to end up being labeled as even terrorists, to be stripped from online platforms, and practically to become invisible for people.
Some simply do not know what to do, because they actually do not understand what is happening. All that they did for years, practicing and preaching, turned out to be wrong. To be more accurate all that they believed for years was complete nonsense, and reality turned out to be much worse. It is not fun for them. So they do not actually have anything to offer. They prepared for the wrong scenarios.
And finally, some are dealing with a combination of both of the above.
What to expect in the future
Based on what is happening everywhere what we are gonna see in the near future is simply a “slow-burning” SHTF, where there is no major event that we can clearly see. In reality, we have been experiencing those major events for last year or more, but it may not seem like that. That’s because we are those frogs in water that is being slowly warmed up over time.
We are living a “new normal,” but it is not normal. However, because it is stretched over a period of time it becomes the new normal.
It is kinda paradoxical, but the transfer from that slow-burning SHTF time to a full-blown SHTF will probably be caused by some minor event.
For example, we are living in lockdowns, very controlled societies, freedoms are being denied… and it has become the new normal. Then one day some small event, like a small town protest, will cause that huge transition to a full-blown SHTF.
People are on the edge, systems are on the edge... a small push is all that is needed for things to erupt.
What should you do?
“Keep your powder dry” is one of those cliched statements that I never approved of too much, simply because it is so stereotypical. BUT I think we have finally reached the day when I can freely use it.
“Plugging out of the system” as much as you can is something that I strongly advise at all times, and now I advise it even more strongly, because (another favorite cliche) “time is short.” I do not mean here only about watching carefully about what you post and where on social networks. I mean about pushing yourself to be less dependent on the system.
It is better to do it and practice it now while the system is still there.
There is a growing tendency that the system will simply be more oppressive. It may not be the same depending on the region of the world where you live, but it is a global tendency
It is time to pull away from that system and to be less dependent on the comforts that the system offers.
About Selco:
Selco survived the Balkan war of the 90s in a city under siege, without electricity, running water, or food distribution.
In his online works, he gives an inside view of the reality of survival under the harshest conditions. He reviews what works and what doesn’t, tells you the hard lessons he learned, and shares how he prepares today. He never stopped learning about survival and preparedness since the war. Regardless of what happens, chances are you will never experience extreme situations as Selco did. But you have the chance to learn from him and how he faced death for months.
- Read more of Selco’s articles here.
- Buy his PDF books here.
- Buy his best-selling paperbacks, SHTF Survival Bootcamp, SHTF Survival Stories, and The Dark Secrets of Survival here.
- Take advantage of a deep and profound insight into his knowledge by signing up for his online courses SHTF Survival Boot Camp and learn the inside story of what it was really like when the SHTF with his online course One Year in Hell.
- Find him on Patreon.
- You can donate directly to Selco at https://www.paypal.me/SHTFschool (use the dropdown arrow to select USD as the currency)
Real survival is not romantic or idealistic. It is brutal, hard and unfair. Let Selco take you into that world.
Great advice from Selco. People in Texas and surrounding areas are experiencing a rehearsal for SHTF. It’s not just that they don’t have power or heat or internet, but even cell phone tower generators are freezing! We had a deep freeze in our area about 10 years ago and the utility provider could not get natural gas into the state for heating. It was then we purposed to get a wood stove and keep a good supply of wood on hand.
Agreed Fina. I am here in Texas and we are in the “country” rural area and so seem to be ok, some of my prepping stuff actually came in handy yesterday, and we are trying to become less dependent upon Big Gov, my cell phone seems to be going out a lot, but none the less, we have electric (for now), and water, and rain barrels that have not froze up. Have generators, wood and other supplies. The thing is, people in other parts of Texas near major cities, like Dallas, Forth Worth, Houston, San Antonio are all without power, water and can’t go anywhere. There’s no where for them to go. Literally. My sister is one of them in Dallas, no water or power for 3 days now. My brother is a truck driver, stuck in Laredo due to weather, with a load, and from up North who knows how to drive in this mess, but was told to stay put and dump the load if he had to, not deliver it, dump it. He says believe it when he says the supply chain is broken, and that that it’s going to get worse. We have to give up the notion that things are going to get better and prepare ourselves for the inevitable REAL SHTF. This here in Texas was absolutely a rehearsal and a great big wake up call for many, including myself. I have been lightly prepping for years but now, yeah I follow Daisy, Selco and Jose religiously. Thanks Daisy, Selco, Jose, and all those other people that help people like me. God bless you all .
We are just south of Fort Worth and so far have had power, but know so many who are without. Interesting about the supply chain and this is very concerning. If it’s not one thing it’s ten. Stay safe everyone.
Our kiddos are NE of Ft. Worth. They were in total (as in not merely rolling) blackout. Thought they’d laid by plenty of firewood. Nope. Thankfully a friend had enough extra to share! Son was up every hour in the night to stoke the fireplace. Inside their home was 35F. They’re saying its been pretty rough on their young family. Unfortunately much of the newer housing developments are all electric with open floor plans in their area.
Well, maybe these events, like covid causing many to embrace homeschooling … maybe these events will cause many more to embrace being better prepared. If TX secedes, they’d better be prepared for anything!
35* is unimaginable. Our son who was without power for 36 hours said the indoor temp was 45*. They didn’t want to risk driving to come here where we are, about 20 miles away since the roads were awful. Plus, we didn’t know if and when we would loose ours. Hearing stories of how people and animals have been affected is heartbreaking. I agree about the succession, but I can’t see it happening.
There were kind neighbors everywhere I understand. They took friends into their warmer homes. Everyone’s better now but only by 10F warmer. Now the kiddos are talking about getting more things to help them next time the lights go out in a blizzard.
New preppers are born with every storm. 🙂
We are all so glad to help, Sara!
Thank you so much for posting. Your post is invaluable.
I agree with him just because social media has a tendency to give voice to those people that might not of not on social media extreme point of view might not have been accepted. This powder keg has been brewing for over 200 years.
History is repeating itself is this not what Hitler did to the Jews and others that did not meet his German ideal also what Stalin did to the Ukraine farmers during the Holomodor?
Amen, my friend. America is looking more like nazi-era germany or soviet-era russia. We are afraid to spreak freely, lest we be “cancelled” by media or investigated by the government. It’s madness. Our 1st amendment has been situationally nullified, and now they are planning to castrate the 2nd amendment. It was the same in nazism and stalinism… shut them up, take their guns, then you can totally oppress them, and they cannot resist. Then you have “papers, please” to go anywhere… what are they pushing for now?… “covid passports”. ????
So, just go watch some documentaries on the rise of the third reich… you will be horrified at the similarities between germany then and america now. Likewise, the german citizens mainly thought it was all a political thing that would blow over… “normalcy bias” is the psychology term.
…but it wont blow over. The 2021 presidential election was openly, blatantly stolen “on video”, and not one branch of government stopped that theft. That was the signal… the subversives took over with the approval of the leadership… its done. Its all downhill from here, unless some form of powerful justice steps in. But i’m not counting on it.
….and even while writing this i am concerned some government agent may “mark me” as someone to be “watched”.
This is not america as defined by the Constitution… america slowly died while no-one was paying attention… now, we will have to deal with the stench.
“America is looking more like nazi-era germany or soviet-era russia”
nah, the nazi’s were competent and loved their nation, we’re going the soviet route.
I suggest way too often and completely in vain, “walk away”.
I call it “Opt Out”.
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=2791153697881846&set=gm.770027643918071
[revealing my id, but grandma and grandpa DeepState already know EVERYTHING there is to know about me – i have a “rap sheet” that goes back nearly 70 yrs when the state first got to know me via a foster home]
It is, to my way of thinking and behaving, time to be stepping down, working towards greater austerity, and getting poor. Throwing the kayak into the raging white water for one’s initial experience is not a recipe for survival. Surviving without conveniences provided by modern technologies requires training to master the skills and an to appreciation of how labor intensive and time consuming it is. ~ Ya gotta take them boots and socks off at least once a day to inspect them feet visually during a winter without heat. “How they feel” ain’t good enough. [It’s funny, the strange color that skin can turn when it is suffering frost bite.] ~
It is probably fortunate for me that nobody believes a word I utter. 🙂
It is not that no one believes you.
It is that for those of us whom live the prepper lifestyle, what you said falls into the,
“Yeah, no $hit Sherlock. We already know that. Been living/doing it for more than a few year now.”
Last week, at 0700, it was -16degrees here. Livestock still need watered and fed, wood still needs brought in.
When it got up to 20 degrees, took the dog for a walk.
“We already know that”
well I didn’t know to inspect the feet every day during cold weather, don’t have much experience with cold and I appreciate the offhand comment about it.
What you utter is pretty much common sense and Lord knows there is a serious shortage of that among many folks!
Younger folks have been taught that us older folks are used up and good for nothing-marginalized or I guess now we’ll be cancelled! What they don’t understand is that the wisdom the older folks have is invaluable in order to survive is such a dystopian world.
Then you have the older folks who have abandoned all common sense and those would be our lovely politicians of the day.
I never got very connected to any of the social media stuff. Live out in the boonies without close neighbors but sure have my options to find the simple stuff I need. Lot of chaff I can do without if need be. This cold sure has been an eye opener! Hasn’t been above 0 in a couple of days here! Need to rethink our heat if no electric is available. Have a PTO powered generator but that will only last so long and it’s noisy!
Sure have been enjoying honing my tracking skills with all this snow. Amazing how many critters are actually around when you see all those tracks!
When Selco speaks, I certainly pay attention. This post raised my hackles. I have heard the comparisons to Germany and side thought yeah it’s eerily similar. But to hear it from Selco, based on his experience…The frog in the pot analogy is spot on. As is the premise that many preppers have been prepping for the wrong thing. I know my own prepping has been more focused on shorter term issues. I have slowly been trying to expand that but personal shtf’s like job loss and health issues have impacted that. I guess I can take small comfort that I am better prepared than a lot.
Another granny here. Lived without house power over 14 months now. Building up supplies to go solar.
Live rural. Power to one well and manual winch on the one in my backyard.
Heat with my choice of wood pellets or sticks. Cook there as well. Using a camp coffee pot. Blessed to have heat and a way to cook. Stocked with plenty of food. A lot is heat and eat canned goods. Also canned fruit for deserts or snacks.
Feeling blessed even with minus zero windchills and critters to feed and carry water to. At 74 it isbt easy but if prepared it isn’t overwhelming.
Just to repeat a very important point…have a weapon, know how to use it and do not surrender it. Genocide is coming…
I’ve been reading OP for a few years now , and have been heading some of the warnings. Living in California in the Bay Area, reading these blogs/posts has helped me become slightly better prepared. I am hoping that all of these warnings are wrong. But, if they are accurate, I’m almost ready for the fall out. If it’s not my preferred response, I’m better off than what I was a year ago. Especially since I’m almost debt free. All I can say is thank you to all of the contributors, both the posts and comments which have encouraged, and given me the insight I need to become debt free and more prepared for the uncertainties ahead.
Cancel culture is SHTF already at work. Talk of reeducation or camps deprograming our children is terrifying talk.
Covid has become the excuse for banning church services. Thankfully courts haven’t held that up as acceptable. It is a troubling uneasy time with many threats still hanging over our heads just for different opinions. If it all goes to pot, well still survive and work toward a better life. Anerica was never perfect but it was built on good ideals.. our constitution is still what we need.
Thanks Selco, and each one that writes here. Good info or reminders. I’ve always canned and grown a garden to live year to year. I starting prepping other parts of life 15 months ago. This severe winter cold and snow is a good trial run. The hardest part of this weather event has been carrying water to critters several times a day. I keep a row of filled milk jugs for critter water. Food gas been open and warm or simple one pot meals. Using paper bowls and plates set on picnic plastic bowls or plates. Saves washing for now but I do have a gallon teakettle of water hot most of the time at the wood heater. Bedroom heat is my camping buddy propane heater. I keep 10 bbq size propane bottles filled in winter. I watch for them cheap from Craigslist.
Texas wind generators freezing up isn’t good. Makes me wonder if NM has had the same problem.
Something else happens when it gets cold, snowy, and people stay in more….wildlife becomes more visible. We’ve always noticed the coyotes come around more when there’s snow on the ground, and now that we have security cameras, we can verify this. I think snow on the ground allows more reflected light and they can hunt all night. Two visited the night before last (and got some of our chickens–that was our fault), then four came last night, but didn’t get a meal. Another lesson learned- when you depend on your animals for survival, you don’t forget to close the hen house door.
@Fina,
“when you depend on your animals for survival, you don’t forget to close the hen house door.”
Good advice right there.
And, if you are depending on hunting/trapping for survival, tracks in the snow gives you a better idea of what is around, and how many.
I have seen at least two sets, maybe three, of coy tracks.
One fox.
A few field mice, probably less than half a dozen.
Two rabbits.
I have seen a few squirrels.
No deer since last DEC and that was early in the month.
This is just a Transition Phase in the US. Until US Corporations replace the current Chinese owners by paying the administration more. Our risk is that US companies need to recognize this before the new administration destroys our economy.
The on-purpose economic depression will continue until the bidding gets higher. Covid-19 has given the pols the perfect excuse and the clueless comrades that elected them will believe lies that the former administration’s decisions are still depressing the economy.
In the meantime, we’ll continue to have local/regional challenges with weather, anarchists, ANTIFA and BLM. I can’t wait until the Far Left, who presumes they got “the man” elected, gets jilted because what they want is unfeasible & impractical.
So many are comparing the events here in the US to the rise of the Nazi’s in Pre-WWII Germany. There are comparisons to be made, but to totalitarianism in general. The methods are the same. Nothing is really new. Lie, lie, lie to the sheep population to keep everyone off balance and confused. Create a crisis out of nothing and tell the people they must behave in certain ways to be safe. Create an enemy and bombard the chosen enemy with hate-filled propaganda that others will believe and eventually blame those chosen as the enemy for all problems. In Russia it was the Czar and the bourgeoisie. In Germany it was the Jews. In the US its turned out to be white people, especially conservative white people. The Jews were only about 10% of the population in Germany. Whites are still a majority here in the US, though a dwindling one thanks to the flood of illegals. Still, I think the Bolsheviks here may have bitten off more than they will be able to chew. Time will tell, but now that the Middle Class is on its last legs and the comforts are beginning to disappear along with the obvious fraud in the election, people are PISSED.
I agree we are in a slow SHTF scenario. Since we are guessing about the future, I will make my prediction. I think the acceleration / breaking point will be when the use of the Chinese digital currency (DCEP) (rolling out later this year) becomes widely adopted. There are many articles about this on the web, but here is one from the BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54261382
The Chinese are trying to break the sovereignty of the US Dollar (read the last paragraphs of the BBC article), but it will take several years (maybe 4-5) for this to happen. When it does, the need for the US Dollar as a reserve currency will be reduced. My belief is that this will mean fewer countries will need to purchase our dollars and we may have to pay a higher rate of interest on our debt. The US then will have to live more within its means, and that WILL truly be a SHTF situation.
About this same time, it will be apparent that the promised green jobs won’t have materialized, or if new jobs were created, they would have gone to robots because that is truly the only way a business owner can compete here in the US with the low wages of other countries in a globalized world.
The Chinese are also leaders in using social surveillance, and their digital currency will provide them a lot more power. They will be able to push the US around a lot more at that time because we will be broke. That may be the time they make their move on Taiwan and other disputed areas–hence more military dust-ups or outright war. I think this will also coincide with a push in the US to “equalize” wealth and also pay for more and more social programs (healthcare for all, education for all, whatever for all, reparations for some… etc.) Plus the strain of caring for the huge number of boomers (and the money they will need to pull out of the stock market to fund their retirements) will contribute even more to an ailing economic system.
I think we will have an economic meltdown first, and then Americans (of both parties) will start looking around for someone to blame. Some people may blame immigrants, some may blame white people, some may blame “boomers,” (there is an entire book written on how everyone in that generation is a sociopath), some may blame millennials, etc. The idea will be to blame somebody, and there will be a lot of anger and violence.
I, too, see a LOT of parallels with Hitler and Goebbels propaganda machine. If you tell a BIG LIE long enough. People will believe it.
I think it will take a few years before all of this happens. The situation reminds me of ship at the top of a whirlpool. As the ship starts to go down into the whirlpool, it goes faster and faster the nearer it gets to the bottom. I hope that someone who understands economics will tell me I am wrong. This is one time I would be happy to say I am wrong!
I read your articles with interest. But I would like to ask: what happens to old people who are not able to run or even walk long distances? How can they possibly survive a SHTF situation? And if they are with family, are they hindering the others or putting them in danger?? What can be done with seniors and people with disabilities?