Modern OPSEC and Thirdworldization

By the author of Household Preparedness Training: Domestic Protocols For Crises And Emergencies

Last year, International Man published an intriguing article by Jeff Thomas about American society during the Great Depression period. Duly named Duesenberg In A Barn, it opens with a story about shifts in culture and the lifestyle of wealthy individuals and families during the 1930s and beyond (Duesenberg produced luxury sport cars between 1913 and 1937).

He recounts how the riches that didn’t get snuffed out by, or even profited from, the 1929 Stock Market Crash, kept flaunting their wealth trying to outcompete each other, in an attempt to extend the 1920s Jazz Era hedonism and largesse into Depression times.

However, as the crisis aggravated, these individuals and families started to realize that such behavior amidst the rampant misery was quickly becoming a liability. 

“Whatever the psychology involved, in 1930, those who had fared well soon learned that it was unwise to be conspicuous in their continued wealth. At that point, an interesting but little-remembered development occurred. Such people put their mink coats in the closet, their jewelry in a safe place, and found barns in the countryside into which they could park their Duesenbergs, Cords, and Auburns.”

The rich toned down not from sympathy or compassion but as adaptation. Contrary to what many think, the wealthy have a sharp survival instinct.

That’s a crucial distinction, with the keywords being “adaptation” and “survival”, and the main takeaway an important social dynamic typical of all crises: the nail that stands out gets hammered. 

Those born and living in unstable and hostile contexts are constantly reminded of all the unwritten rules that keep us, our kin, and our stuff, safer. From criminals, sure, but also from tyrannical, greedy governments and corrupt authorities. 

I call that Thirdworldization OPSEC. It applies to criminality and government overreach mainly, but as Thirdworldization expands, it’s now applicable to other areas of social existence. Illegal immigrants, as well as political, religious, and ideological extremists from our own society, must now be added to the list of official (i.e., state) and criminal threats.

Threats are increasing and modern OPSEC is important.

There are periods in history when the number and diversity of potential enemies and hazards around us rise, and that’s the case in most of the West right now.

People are financially insecure, afraid of the future, confused, and lost. Those feelings lead to anger and revolt. Add all the leftist/woke indoctrination and brainwashing of the last years, and we get a mass of utterly discontent and unhinged folks out there. 

The majority cannot put a finger on, much less process what’s happening. Nevertheless, the sentiments are there and everyone starts lashing out at everyone else, resulting more frequent and intense episodes of violence and increased friction.

I’m talking about gratuitous, random, and now targeted and coordinated violence coming from all sides and for a variety of reasons. I warned about this in 2023, and it’s now coming to a head. 

Let’s examine some facets of this phenomenon and how to deal with this new reality.

Starting with what Thomas addressed in his Duesenberg article: lifestyle, status, and ostentation

There are many similarities between the 1920s and now. The risks of a grave economic or financial event are sky-high. Growth is abysmal, inflation is rising, and living standards are dropping. 

And critically, the concentration of wealth is growing at an accelerated pace. The haves are getting fleeced and may be outnumbered by the have-nots at some point, which is bad.

Economic disparity begets political polarization, which begets the undoing of the social fabric, which begets cultural degradation, which begets the undoing of civilization.

More people are living in the streets (I’ll return to that in an upcoming post). Drug and alcohol abuse are skyrocketing, and mental illness is exploding. Those things are happening across all demographics, which is concerning and one of the points of this post.

“Thou shall not flaunt.”

Even though we’re not yet at the stage described by Jeff Thomas, the words of late philanthropist George Peabody – “Ostentation is a target you hang on your back” – already come to mind as a survival rule in a declining society. 

Nonetheless, everybody’s trying to keep up with the Joneses, something evident in both the real world and the web. Social media is a carousel of Dubai trips, fabulous resorts, fancy restaurants, luxurious dresses, plastic surgeries, and Lamborghinis. 

That’s not the reality, but a facade. This is the age of gambling, easy money chasing, glorification of ignorance (Dunning-Kruger and “influencer culture”), fake lifestyles, and blatant ostentation. It’s a bubble, and the bill will come due.

But enough with the rant. No one has to live like a monk. Being aware, smart, contained, and disciplined always pays, only now more than ever. Besides, it only requires focus on what we can control: our profile, exposure, consumption choices, and lifestyle.

The same dynamic happens in other areas as well.

Let’s talk about political radicalization. Tesla owners and dealers are getting their vehicles and premises vandalized by Trump haters, who now have turned into Musk haters thanks to his association with the government and his role in DOGE initiatives (no need for links as both topics are all over the news).

It’s, in essence, a criminal matter, but with political and ideological motivations, things get more complex and sensitive, not to mention dangerous. 

I’ve previously expressed my view on the likelihood of a civil war 2.0 in the U.S.. I stand by everything I said in that article, including the potential for the rise of intra-terrorism and political violence, or even criminality, reaching civil-war-like levels.

Is the mass of indoctrinated and radical people ready to spread a wave of madness and violence? We’re already getting a glimpse of that. Will it fizzle out or escalate? How will government, institutions and other sectors of society respond if that happens? 

We don’t know, and that’s the point.

It’s possible, so the question is how probable? Even a few can cause great damage, physically and to the nation’s mood and institutional order. 

“Literally anyone can be a lone wolf. It’ll make the problem that much tougher to tackle, without curtailing civil liberties. Civil war or not, a wave of violence is coming.” 

That’s Max Remington on his excellent “Trouble Brewing On The Horizon”  recently in his Substack. I encourage you to read it fully as it tackles the various angles of this phenomenon and the possible outcomes in a very thorough and down-to-earth fashion. 

The left has no guardrails and is showing signs it won’t concede power, entitlements, and schemes easily or without a fight. But in truth, even peaceful people can turn radical.

So you may just be denied service in a restaurant for wearing this hat or that shirt, or get your car keyed for sporting this or that sticker. But the possibility of something worse happening cannot be ignored, now more than ever. 

Bringing this segment to a conclusion, let’s be pragmatic: Defending and expressing political views, preferences, and affiliations with excessive fervor, or trying to sway people with vehemence, has never been wise or a 100% risk-free endeavor. It’s now quickly becoming a liability, and that’s what matters to us.

Individual identity and personal expression

In a multidimensional crisis, volatility is the norm. Criminality aside, things get crazy beyond the imaginable, often involving aspects of lifestyle and politics as addressed above, but also of culture, religion, race and ethnicity, sex and gender, and more. 

Even small, seemingly innocent actions can lead to unwanted outcomes, sometimes dreadful ones. One such example is the case of the “Deadly Posts”:

“Brazilian Criminal Groups Are Allegedly Monitoring Social Media For Perceived Rivals.” [SOURCE]

People being kidnapped and assassinated by gangs and factions for posting selfies with hand signs on social media may sound like typical Third World stuff. The truth is that it’s neither new nor exclusive to banana republics and narco-states, as this ABC News article from 2013 shows. 

Since gangs and criminals exist pretty much everywhere, we must assume that stuff like that can happen anywhere, so it’s also worth reflection and consideration.

An issue in the virtual realm as well

People and businesses are being persecuted, canceled, marooned, or hacked for expressing their views and opinions on social media and internet. If they’re not, they can and the risk is now bigger than ever.

Citizens get arrested and charged in the UK and other countries for political, racial or gender-related posts, or other reason deemed contentious by the authorities. This is happening here in Brazil and other places as well, and when it makes the news (which is rare), it gets distorted.

The internet is a minefield. Here are various forms of drawing a personal SHTF onto oneself (and that’s discounting the risks presented by virtual scams and other heists). Even if you consider yourself a digital hermit, others around you (relatives, friends, etc.) may get inadvertently affected, so think about it.

The rules or grounds for those things to happen aren’t much clearer, making matters even worse. Hate speech? Misogyny? Racism? Discrimination? Anything can stick, especially if it’s the government and their acolytes (corrupt NGAs and the media). It’s better to lay low and refrain from some fights.

Do you want to be right or be safe, happy, and get things done?

“You mean I cannot talk on my phone while walking the streets? That I cannot wear my MAGA hat or shirt or stick a flag in my front yard, drive this or that car? That I cannot openly agree or disagree with this or that view, or express my dissatisfaction with how X, Y, or Z do things?”

It’s not a matter of can but should. What is to be gained versus what can be lost. The potential risks, and not only in the short term. 

In times like these, to err on the safe side is a wise strategy. Not turning paranoid, but I am considering the potential implications of some stances, decisions, and behaviors.

What about religion?

That’s a more complex and delicate issue. We all have hills on which we’re willing to die rather than surrender, and religion may be the case for some.

It’s a very intimate subject, perhaps the most personal of all being addressed here so I’ll refrain from comment and leave each to make their own reflections.

New world mindset for urbanites

The worse the crisis, the more dangerous it gets out there. It’s not just crime and violence of all kinds that go up, but other forms of uncivilized savagery as well: road rage, domestic violence, abuses against children, elders, women, minorities, and more. 

Road rage, in particular, is a big issue because when everyone is at boiling point, the risks of getting inadvertently involved in trouble simply by everyday exposure and friction increase exponentially. 

Be mindful of vigilanteism as well. It’s a complex issue with many angles and thus worth a dedicated post, so I’ll just say it also tends to rise and become critical in times of unrest. Common citizens can get caught on both sides, and the consequences can be grave.

Being 100% grey all the time and about everything is impossible. Realizing that is critical, even those living as recluses will eventually draw some attention or bump into someone the wrong way. Keep a cool head and the emotions in check is something under our control.

Final words

I acknowledge First World residents might feel these ideas represent a loss of freedom and personal agency. Unfortunately, it’s true in part, and there’s not much we can do about it. 

Just because we’ve been living relatively peacefully for the last 20 or 30 years doesn’t mean it will remain so forever. 

For the record, I’m not saying these things are happening or will happen where you live. Some phenomena are global, but they don’t happen on the same scale or intensity everywhere. 

Most important, it’s not an SHTF. The world as we know it is changing, not ending. Not everything will be fine, but it never is anyway, and that’s okay. It’s perfectly possible to live a good and normal life in a volatile world. 

Becoming paranoid isn’t the answer, much less joining the madness. Be realistic and smart: assess the situation, prepare, make the necessary adjustments, and do what you can. And as always, stay safe.

What do you think?

Do you see things becoming more dangerous in your area? Are you concerned about political or ideological violence? What steps, if any, have you taken to be more “gray” in this modern world?

Let’s discuss modern OPSEC in the comments section.

About Fabian

Fabian Ommar is a 50-year-old middle-class worker living in São Paulo, Brazil. Far from being the super-tactical or highly trained military survivor type, he is the average joe who since his youth has been involved with self-reliance and outdoor activities and the practical side of balancing life between a big city and rural/wilderness settings. Since the 2008 world economic crisis, he has been training and helping others in his area to become better prepared for the “constant, slow-burning SHTF” of living in a 3rd world country.

Fabian’s ebook, Street Survivalism: A Practical Training Guide To Life In The City , is a practical training method for common city dwellers based on the lifestyle of the homeless (real-life survivors) to be more psychologically, mentally, and physically prepared to deal with the harsh reality of the streets during normal or difficult times. He’s also the author of The Ultimate Survival Gear Handbook.

You can follow Fabian on Instagram @stoicsurvivor