By the author of Street Survivalism: A Practical Training Guide To Life In The City and The Ultimate Survival Gear Handbook
News about the situation in Haiti keeps circulating and making waves among the international community. It’ll soon be replaced by another issue of the moment, but it’s everywhere now, and even celebrities and artists are rushing to show support for the “wonderful Haiti,” praising the disgraced country’s enchantments.
Daisy’s report on the explosion of violence on the Caribbean island had commenters expressing their views as well, with many mentioning worries that something similar can happen in the US. She and Selco returned to the topic last week, posing a couple of rather pertinent questions at the end to stimulate the debate:
“Do you use the situation in Haiti as a possible example of how bad the SHTF could really get? Or do you have a bunch of reasons why you believe you are different or somehow exempt from such things?”
My intention in writing a post to answer that is not to create a polemic, much less antagonize. It is just to provide a different point of view and why I think it matters for those who want to stay prepared for this specific type of SHTF.
To answer Daisy’s first question –
Yes, it makes sense to use Haiti as a case study.
As well as the Balkans, Lebanon, Argentina, WW2, or any other war or disaster. We take these and other historical events and analyze how far humans can go to create and survive SHTFs. Even though we’re doomed to repeat history, we can and do learn a lot from it individually.
However, I am of the opinion that something like that cannot and will not happen in the US, Europe, or other First World Nations. Not in the foreseeable future, if ever. Not even in less prominent and developed countries like mine (Brazil), Mexico, or Argentina. In other words, I see Haiti, Ecuador, or the Balkans as the exception.
That leads straight to the second question, and to me, it’s more a matter of probability than exemption. To be clear, I believe no one’s exempt from anything, so the Haitization or Balkanization of the US is possible, only highly unlikely.
Here’s why I think this.
Some stuff happens to X but not Y, and that applies to people as well to different nations and locations. Before getting into the why that is, let’s review some accepted facts:
- Humans are capable of great violence and evil.
- Society keeps destructive instincts under control. Repression systems, infrastructure, and a production system exist for the collective’s good and to provide the conditions for civilization to advance.
- Once the “thin veneer or civilization” disappears, it’s all-out chaos, the regression of civilization. If the repression system or the production chain breaks down, that’s SHTF.
However, while thin, this “veneer of civilization” (the system) is stronger and more resilient than we think.
That’s particularly true in more advanced and wealthier (i.e., First World) nations, but as I said, also in ones a few stages below in development. Countries with solid traditions in democracy, robust institutions, and stronger educational and technological foundations go into crisis, shake, and tremble. They may even go to war, but they don’t fall as easily into anarchy.
We may debate the fact that Western institutions and values are discredited, being challenged, or under attack and the impact that process has on the pillars of modern civilization and the dynamics of society. Fine, but we cannot argue history so while all that spells “crisis”, it has happened many times before and doesn’t necessarily mean order and law will crumble in these places.
Things like social unrest, political instability, corruption, huge debts, and glitches in finance and the economy have been par for most of history. The older generations may have forgotten, and the newer ones are unaccustomed to that, so the whole Fourth Turning thing looks and feels like the end of times. But that’s just the normal state of the world. We’re living at the peak of civilization, and it keeps moving forward despite setbacks.
The idea that the status quo is strong and flexible may challenge some accepted notions, but history proves it.
I’ve said it before: the state has tremendous power, even in less functional countries. It takes a lot to challenge that power in any meaningful way and even more to bring it down.
What happened in Haiti and Ecuador is inconceivable in the US, UK or Europe because the conditions aren’t there. Residents of these places will never see warlords and gangs threatening the government, breaking into prisons and freeing thousands of inmates, barbecuing their enemies in the streets, or terrorizing the population at large. There will be issues with mass immigration, the economy, crime, and social unrest, but not a total collapse of authority and order.
It would take something really big, most likely of natural order (a huge CME or something), to create these conditions. In that case, yes things could deteriorate fast and hard but that’s not what I’m talking about. And even in that case, it could, not necessarily would.
This is an exception, not a precedent.
An SHTF like Haiti is less a matter of exceptionalism and more about precedent and vocation.
I’m not an expert, but something of that nature and magnitude has never happened to a superpower in modern times, so history seems to prove that theory. It’s hard to imagine it can happen now just “because it can happen anywhere.” Some things do, others don’t: widespread barbarism and cannibalism aren’t exactly exceptional in Haiti, but they are almost everywhere else, even during tough times, and that makes a big difference, too.
I’ve already argued why I don’t see a civil war 2 in the US anytime soon. Some people get mad at me for saying that, but it’s my opinion, and I did my best to base it on arguments, point by point. There’s nothing black and white about these matters, so I’ll admit that a civil war is more likely to occur in the US than a Haiti-style SHTF.
The same logic applies to the possibility of war breaking out in Europe: it’s not exceptional, in fact it’s happened countless times in a not-so-distant past so objectively the conditions are present.
Another example: political coups were common in Latin America (I was born in the thick of a military regime lasting from 1964 to 1985 in Brazil). It’s 2024, and former president Bolsonaro may go to jail for allegedly plotting a coup after last year’s elections. I won’t go into detail because the whole thing – the plot and the investigation – is a circus. Just mentioning it, but that’s the point: flirting with this kind of crap is part of Latin American culture. Determinism aside, that explains a lot of why we’re seeing that kind of crap surface again. However, things never even came close to bad here as they get in Haiti.
As Daisy noted, crap is always hitting the fan somewhere. Democracy, education, culture, economy, institutions, and society are at different stages in countries worldwide. Naturally, some places will see dictatorships, others hyperinflation, others wars or coups, and so on. That’s how the world works.
What about cannibalism?
Many expressed their horror and disgust with the news that cannibalism had become widespread in Haiti as it fell into chaos. Others questioned the veracity of these reports. Cannibalism is a social taboo and a constant topic in preparedness and survivalism, so what’s happening?
First of all, many of the videos circulating are old or fake. But some are real, meaning it’s happening, which shouldn’t come as a shock considering the history, the tribalistic nature, the primitive culture, and the current development stage of Haitian society.
Second, the gangs ruling Haiti have a lot in common with the cartels and criminal factions that exist in most of Latin America. Hence, gut-wrenching brutality and violence dispensed by gangs, criminal factions, and cartels to their enemies. Barbecuing and feasting on the corpses of your enemies is just one such case. I’m sure some of you have seen worse and know what I’m talking about.
Anyway, mutilation and exhibition of the enemy’s violated corpse are used to send a message, humiliate and inflict fear on the opponents and shock society. Barbaric practices have been common since the dawn of time and persist to this day in places where violence is the norm – Haiti, but also Third World favelas, prisons, and disputed territories. It clearly isn’t the norm in the First World.
Import the Third World, become the Third World?
Not so much. I’m not saying a large influx of immigrants (legal or illegal) over a relatively short time won’t impact the standard of living and bring deep and broad changes to any society because it will. Even more so to already overburdened, overstretched, and highly indebted nations, which is the case in most, if not all, Western countries right now.
That’s happening now.
But these are also the countries with the best infrastructure and the strongest institutions. So again, this wave can damage and weaken any country, even a superpower. Though this process will make the First World more like the Third, it’s unlikely to cause it to collapse entirely, and that’s a big difference.
Open borders, moral decay, economic and financial crashes, government and institutional corruption and inefficiency, organized crime (I’ll be talking about this in an upcoming article): these are in my opinion the most severe threats to First World nations, particularly the US and Europe. The consequences will directly impact the citizens.
But Haiti? I can’t see how.
Conclusion and final thoughts
This post may seem like a Third Worldization vs. Balkanization debate, but it’s not. It could be more like Third Worldization + Balkanization, as the two are closely related—more so than most people think anyway.
Admittedly, I see Thirdworldization as a more prominent issue, not only because that’s the kind of SHTF I’ve been through for half of my life and see now happening here and everywhere else, but mostly due to the fact that it’s a forerunner of other full-scale SHTFs caused by humans.
It’s also cyclical and widespread. No nation or population is immune to becoming poorer and more dysfunctional. I defend some may be exempt from other types of SHTFs – to be clear, by probability, not exceptionalism, divine mandate, or something. Crap can hit the fan anywhere, sure, it’s just more frequent and the consequences more severe in some places than in others due to a series of factors.
That’s not to say everything will be fine in the First World, but again, that’s life on planet Earth, and we’ll survive. Unless you live in a real, actual sih*thole, Haiti is a sad but distant reality, so relax and enjoy that privilege. Keep praying, helping your family and others around you, following the events and trends, studying history, and preparing accordingly.
What do YOU think?
So, what are your thoughts about all this? It’s a fascinating discussion, and we’d love to hear your opinion. Just how bad would a SHTF in America become? Would we see pockets of Haiti-level violence? Would it be widespread? Would it be nearly impossible?
Let’s discuss it in the comments section.
About Fabian
Fabian Ommar is a 50-year-old middle-class worker living in São Paulo, Brazil. Far from being the super-tactical or highly trained military survivor type, he is the average joe who since his youth has been involved with self-reliance and outdoor activities and the practical side of balancing life between a big city and rural/wilderness settings. Since the 2008 world economic crisis, he has been training and helping others in his area to become better prepared for the “constant, slow-burning SHTF” of living in a 3rd world country.
Fabian’s ebook, Street Survivalism: A Practical Training Guide To Life In The City , is a practical training method for common city dwellers based on the lifestyle of the homeless (real-life survivors) to be more psychologically, mentally, and physically prepared to deal with the harsh reality of the streets during normal or difficult times. He’s also the author of The Ultimate Survival Gear Handbook.
You can follow Fabian on Instagram @stoicsurvivor
All they need to do is hit us with a cyber attack that shuts down the EBT cards as well as the free money cards handed out to all these illegal immigrants and this country will come unglued at the seems!
We are already in the 3rd year of this timeline so I am expecting this “cyber attack” to hit us by the end of this year!:
https://sumofthyword.com/2016/10/04/the-rapture-of-the-church-is-after-the-tribulation/
Here is more detail: Chinese in the U.S. 7 divisions. Illegals will be turned loose w/ auto rifles, all races of Anercans will be replaced w/ third world migrants.https://hw.infowars.com/posts/war-correspondent-michael-yon-warns-russian-style-terror-attacks-coming-to-america/
I agree with you, Rob… about the ungluing… also, it could begin around November-December-January… around then. UNLESS Yahshua steps back onto the earth somewhere around the mount of olives…
Blessings,
OD
I do think that severe unrest and violence is possible in the US as well as other first world countries because we(and they) have been importing gang members and cartels and jihadists for a while now. There is nothing to stop them from engaging in the sort of violence they have back where they came from be it Venezuela, Guatemala or Lebanon. Most of the US as well as countries such as the UK or France are pretty soft targets. Most urban people don’t have guns, other than gangs and drug dealers who would join in the carnage. We have been bringing in millions of people, many who don’t share our values but want our stuff. I suspect things will get pretty bad. And don’t count on the outnumbered and outgunned police to save you.
While the Red States still display traditional values and a tendency towards Christian virtues…the inner Blue State cities are already a third world zoo. We’re going to have to blockade the big cities to keep the animals contained.
Your leaders know about these types and that is the VERY reason why they are bringing them to your shores, to your heartland, to your very back yard.
THEY KNOW! I just heard a radio announcer saying Joe Biden just HATES your country. BINGO!
“I’ll admit that a civil war is more likely to occur in the US than a Haiti-style SHTF”.
This is delusional thinking at best. There are lists of countries that have endured or enduring civil war and it is SHTF scenario. Any large metropolitan area in the US that experiences loss of food supplies and access to water will devolve in less than a week to pandemonium writ large. The authorities cannot control these enclaves now while electricity, water and food are plentiful, it will worsen immeasurably once the basics are no longer provided and the lights have gone out. We were are high trust society once, but no longer, and when that is gone so is our civilization. No rule of law provides nothing but chaos, death and destruction. Act and plan accordingly.
I think the violence and chaos would vary by area. City vs rural mostly. But I think the rural versions would look different than the urban ones. There wouldn’t be the large scale mob mentality going on in a rural area. Not because people are nicer or anything dreamy like that. Rather that the jungle mindset is less prominent here.
Individuals or a small group might feel inspired to be destructive for perceived slights but once they run into the armed citizenry, they would either lose their irritation or end up 6ft under. The more likely group of people to cause problems would be any that have run out of food & water and aren’t going to take no for an answer.
In my immediate area there are clusters of homes and farms. Most are normal blue collar working class, the elderly or Amish & homesteader types. We have the usual pot heads and heavy drinkers but no drug houses or large scale groups that feel that the “man”(anyone who is not them) owes them everything.
All good points. I think the producers of this circus forget that We The Peeps out here working too hard to have enough time to do much about things (the silent majority) will definitely make themselves known if the ‘system’ goes down. Plenty of time to do the right things and protect each other then. When the worry of going to prison for defending yourself goes out the window, it’s game on. Here’s to hoping common sense is used along with taking care of business.
Once the lights go out, EMP, super solar flare, atomic war, it will be worse than Haiti in 30 days.
i wanted to comment on this because i think first world nations are much more vulnerable than people think, (Dijon is a schoolbook example https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Dijon_riots) but due to two arrests in the Netherlands this week from people also writing about things and protesting against Islamic violence / Palistinian idiots in the Netherlands i will not write this, someone else did…..the government collects all names of people disagreeing with their masters version of the world around us…. In Belgium they are taking on political opponents now, putting them in jail for years…jails that are populated with the same kind of shitbags the convicted people protest against…basically the judge sents them to jail in thwe hope/ expectaion that they will be killed of maimed in jail, with no option to run away… left way of thought believes this is right and good…
That is what Europe is becoming in rapid speed, a dictatorship overlooked by Islamic rule, led by the known mostly white idiots like Macron and Rutte and the EU cunt that make it happen…and no handdle to grab and shake, all is like liquid, no really someone to take on….still, no building stands without foundations…
we are inside the perimeter of the shtf, but the shit is spread in layers, slowly and from all sides….
regards, Duchesne
First World nations are vulnerable yes, but not the same way the Third World is vulnerable, and not to the same threats either.
It takes a major, major event to bring down from a First World nation or block to shithole level. That, or a long period of deep crises and minor events or shocks, which is what´s currently happening.
the strenght to get up after hardship is stronger in 3rd world countries….here in the “1st”world all is solved by pharmaceutical solutions…
I totally understand that perspective Duchesne. I´ve lived briefly in the US and visited Canada, Europe and other 1st World Countries so I know where you´re coming from saying that.
But I´ve also visited the 3rd World and live in a developing country, so I can assure you it´s not like that. I understand this feeling, because with rare exceptions it´s the mindset prevalent in countries like mine, and also during times like the one we´re living, times of crisis.
I do my best to look at these matters as distantly and as objectively as possible, not sure if I succeed but history seems to corroborate that view. Life in the UK through most of modern history and today is much better than it´s ever been in Haiti. Same Russia, same Portugal or Spain or France.
Everybody can and will get into a hole, some just seem to never get out of one though.
Jimmy ‘Barbecue’ Cherizier did not get his nickname from barbecuing people. It comes from his childhood due to his mother selling barbecue on the streets.
The major cartels in Haiti are France, Canada, and the United States.
The gangs are cooperating to keep the United States and its friends from raping Haiti like they have done to the country for over a hundred years. The gangs have the support of the people. And Barbecue has the support of the gangs to oust the US an its proxies.
The notion of cannibalism is a sensationalistic exaggeration.
If you want to understand the problems of Haiti, the best reporting is by Dan Cohen at Uncaptured Media, Jemima Pierre, and Kim Ives.
Watch out for The National Endowment of Democracy (NED). It is the front that our state department uses to destabilize other countries.
Can it happen here? Of course it can. The only question is when.
Look at blue cities for the leading edge of what’s to come.
What you described is inequality growing, or America becoming more third-world and less first, but not Haiti which at this point is not even Third World but straight-up shithole.
I do not agree on this one. It may not be Haiti, but is will be massive repression, imho
So, basically you´re agreeing, it´s not Haiti because the government and institutions are powerful enough to maintain social order to some level, however through repression, which is the opposite of what´s happening in Haiti. Did I get this wrong?
“What happened in Haiti and Ecuador is inconceivable in the US, UK or Europe because the conditions aren’t there. Residents of these places will never see warlords and gangs threatening the government, breaking into prisons and freeing thousands of inmates, barbecuing their enemies in the streets, or terrorizing the population at large.” This is fantastical thinking.
I have lived through the Watts riots (grade school), the LA riots, the Rodney King riots, etc. I will not even go into the various earthquake scenarios I’ve witnessed……
Some of the population will take advantage of whatever they can steal, rape, kill for just…because. It doesn’t take a lot for some people to get crowd crazy and then it is game on! LAPD almost lost the ability to defend Parker Center in the R.King riots. When the LA riots happened, there was a liberal fund raiser by Hollywood to “help” the disadvantaged. Those wealthy doyens damned near lost their ability to stay alive. LAPD was finally able to extract those folks and get them to safety. Presently, our brain compromised pseudo President has allowed every terrorist, murderer, thief, and hostile agent into this country with a complete portfolio of free money. What we are seeing is the gradual terrorizing of the public; Laken Riley lost her life: a NYC owner has been stripped of her inheritance with squatters taking over: metro bus drivers are being hijacked in major cities: the list goes on and on.
Even in rural areas of Northern California, everybody has their head on a swivel. It isn’t just the cougars we are looking for. So, do I think we are there yet? No, but it’s definitely on the list.
“I have lived through the Watts riots (grade school), the LA riots, the Rodney King riots, etc. I will not even go into the various earthquake scenarios I’ve witnessed……
Some of the population will take advantage of whatever they can steal, rape, kill for just…because. It doesn’t take a lot for some people to get crowd crazy and then it is game on! LAPD almost lost the ability to defend Parker Center in the R.King riots.”
Cannot compare that to what´s happening in Haiti, not even close. There are narco-states in Latin America, widespread crime and terror, infighting, very corrupt authorities… But can´t compare that either.
As mentioned in my text, shit can happen anywhere, I never said it can´t. Things get rought, it might take a while to fix the situation, but a solid nation will recover and quickly, while a weak one will sucumb to anarchy.
The US has a powerful National Guard, a huge army, safeguards, resources, protocols, infrastructure, institutions, it can´t go down from that point to total shithole unless it´s something big enough to overwhelm that structure.
” The US has a powerful National Guard, a huge army, safeguards, resources, protocols, infrastructure, institutions, it can´t go down from that point to total shithole unless it´s something big enough to overwhelm that structure. ”
fighting each other maybe….
still the article is good but the remarks by the writer have my full attention…i am always happy to get new insights…thx Fabian.
Yes Fabian but it can either be a large catastrophic event such as a widespread EMP or multiple nuclear attacks or it could be multiple events happening simultaneously which essentially spread the resources too thin. If nefarious agents or cells plan multiple events, things can go south pretty quickly.
Consider what happened in Israel in October. It was bad enough dealing with the incursion of thousands of Hamas terrorists and the Gazans who joined in. It took quite a while for the IDF and police to handle the attack and in the meantime there was mass carnage. What if Hezbollah in south Lebanon had joined in and attacked the north? What if Arabs in Judea/Samaria aka West Bank had started attacking communities there? And if Arabs in Jerusalem, Lod, Haifa, Jaffa and Acco among others had also gone on attack? A first world tech savvy and otherwise safe country would have dissolved into unspeakable chaos and madness.
I’d say that if there are either sufficient numbers of terrorist/gangster sorts within a country or located near its borders, the risk is present. And I’d say that the US now has both.
Absolutelly agree, Ani. I made sure to point out that a significant and widespread event can change everything fast. I say that not as a caveat, but because I know from personal experience that´s a fact of life.
However, my point is, barred extreme circumstances that can overwhelm even the most powerful superpower in history, something like Haiti can´t happen in the US.
I believe it can´t happen here in Brazil, which is a lot less powerful and solid, or Argentina which is in complete disarray economically. Again, it can happen because in essence anything can happen. It´s just not likely.
As for Israel, it´s complex. I understand and agree with what you´re saying, but 2 things:
1) In this case it´s a war, and war is SHTF;
2) Location plays a role here, too, Israel is surrounded by enemies, it´s not safe in the same way the US or Canada is safe.
I still cannot compare it to Europe, the UK and much less the US. Also as I´ve argued, predecent matters. At least that´s how I see it.
@ Fabian
I no longer think the US is safe because it isn’t surrounded by enemies in the same way as Israel is. Given the lack of border enforcement now, the US is vulnerable to whomever wants entry from anywhere on earth. While Mexico is unlikely to be aiming missiles at us, the gangs and cartels and terrorists flooding the US now can be very dangerous. They definitely aren’t coming here to pick our vegetables.
In Europe, the enemy is within our borders, and lives among us, killing already for a long time our people in the name of their cult. Recent survey stated that 90% of sexual violence and forced prostetution in europe had mostly arab immigrant backgroudn. and they are NOT the victims…read about the Pakistani grooming gangs abusing far over a 100.000 white girls in England over a period of 40 years…the police turning a blind eye as not to be racist…. the German police not arresting rapists with a migration beckground….or setting them free right away….Sweden, from a peacefull country into European hell hole number 2…
How the servantas of the public can live with such injustice i cannot comprehend. Cursed they are for ever.
Guess what will happen if a official war comes to Europe…all white people will be forced to fight, al immigrants will be totally free tot pillage and rape. The stuff that goes on now is childsplay, even with 80 + dead in one attack.
….and this is Europe in 2024, still with a working social system in place providing food, housing, free medical care and drivers courses and money for the culprits….the Bataclan was a wake up call first class: the 2016 Nice massacre washed away in two day’s out of our news system …How dare you say something bed about those poor muslims….the truth is dead for some time now, and the WEF whores keep it buried….
( https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aanslag_in_Nice_op_14_juli_2016 )
Guess what will be our reality when the free money stops…or something blocks the wheels of free dinner and board…
Also, in both France and Germany but in many other European counties soldiers are leaving the army, abandoning their contracts because they have families to protect and not some shitbags stock value in Ukraine….
We the people of Europe by birth and ancestors wait for a revolution…a chance to live or at least have some personal respect left….it will happen…soon is better than later…
my thanks go to the gwentlemen S. Colt and J.M. Browning, for providing a way to a means….and life.
Duchesne.
“The US has a powerful National Guard, a huge army, safeguards, resources, protocols, infrastructure, institutions, it can´t go down from that point to total shithole unless it´s something big enough to overwhelm that structure.”
Fabian, I have to disagree with you there.
The National Guard is having recruiting and retention issues. Fewer young blood joining and the senior NCOs and officers are leaving in greater numbers. I know. My wife was an officer. She saw it happening.
The US Army is having the same issues but at an even larger scale. They also have a physically fitness issue with some 68% are obese. The US Navy and Air Force have the same issues. Only the Marines are keeping up with their recruitment quotas.
In the proxy war with Russia, this WH Admin has drained our national war supply and equipment to dangerously low levels. Russia is playing the same game the insurgents did in Afghanistan: Wait us out.
China now has more surface navy ships than the US does. And unlike the US who has to even depend on China for supplies that go into our ships, planes, tanks, China builds all in house.
A recent report found 70% of F-35 were not combat mission capable. The US submarine fleet, only about a third can even put to sea. Some of the Navy surface ships are in also in need of repair, and up grades.
Our southern border is porous with thousands of illegal immigrants coming in unabated. They are taxing resources to the limit, taking services away from Americans who need those resources. Protocols to secure the border all have been hamstrung by the current WH Admin. ISIS-linked illegals have been caught at the border, and just recently a MS-13 gang leader was caught.
Our infrastructure is incredibly fragile. Our electrical grid is woefully in need of upgrading. The current WH Admin is pushing for more green energy that leaves is inadequate to take on the capacity that other power sources could fill, while this WH Admin shuts those power plants down. Also the amount of new transmission lines needed is simply not there. Nor will it be without some kind of massive spending that also is not there.
Faith in our institutions is at some historic lows. From the government to include the Supreme Court, to the media. There is a reason why firearm sales are at mulit-year highs as people fear someday soon it will all collapse. Big box store Costco was selling gold, till they ran out. Billionaires are building hardened compounds.
The more complex a system is, the more fragile it is. Would it be a Haiti like situation? In some places it could if our JIT/BAU system were to fail. Others, not so much.
“..Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria!”
Sorry, the dogs woke me up @ 1:15 this morning. I’m just in after running around in the frost with the shotty and your post reminded me of Dr. Peter Venkman.
I’m aware of these issues, 1StMarine, this is what I talk about when I mention Thirdworldization. I agree with everything you said in fact I said the same in the post, it’s a time of crisis no doubt.
I’m not saying those forces would fight today as they did in the past, and that decaying infrastructure and institutions won’t bring down the standard of living, only that such scenario is a galaxy or distance from true Third World and total shitholes.
Even though more dysfunctional, America is still powerful and cannot be discounted if facing a more severe crisis. Heck, my country’s justice, army and police forces are as corrupt and dysfunctional as a “developing” (2nd World) can be, and it’s still capable of maintaining order and law at a level that prevents society to collapse.
My point is some structures cannot crumble suddenly or entirely, not even in Haiti it collapsed overnight, it’s a total failure since before its independency, the deposed government was just another gang that got toppled another just that.
None of those conditions are remotely present in the US today. Maybe one day, who knows. But not now.
Wrong. The gang currently in charge toppled a rival gang when they publicly executed Jack Kennedy for all the world to see.
Since then we’ve been trotting our military all over the globe liberating the f*** out of people.
Just keep sending us cheap Brazilian corn and soy and you’ll be ok.., Unless you start selling it from a BRICS basket. Then, watch your ass, cus we’ll come liberate you too. American gangster style.
Location, is the biggest facor of what kind of SHTF you might see, even in the US.
In the Eastern cities you are more likely to see a Hati style result from SHTF, than in a predominately White, middle class, surburbia in the Midwest. or in the rural areas of Western states. The numbers of Illegals,the poor or homeless and inner city typys will be more likely to produce a Hati Style result.
Then Time or Duration, along with the severity of the scenario will factor in also.
The longer it lasts the more desperate people will get as the easily attainable resources dwindle. In the case of Hati, the resources had already dwindled to a very low level before this trouble broke out.
Everyone’s results will vary. There is no, “one size fits all”.
So we have 2 main choices:
1) Prepare for the worst case scenario and I mean the worst of the Worst (Mad Max style).
2) Prepare for the most likely, local scenario.
Each one will be widely different, based upon what you think each one means.
Absolutelly agree with everything you said Mic. Location, duration, severity – absolute determinants. However I doubt the US government will allow a region, state or city to become like Port Au Prince or Pétionville.
And even though now more dysfunctional than ever (which is debatable, but let´s assume for the sake of argumentation and hypothesis), that machine still has enough power and cohesion to keep order and law. Maybe that´s harder in a slow-burning scenario, high urban crime and homelessness, those things. But definitely if a swift and decisive intervention is required, as in a revolution, an attack, a terrorist act, etc. It will be ugly, but will resolve.
I think Haiti-level SHTF is possible, but only at a local level. New Orleans, which happens to be America’s voodoo hotbed, comes to mind as a place it could happen. Even so, I’d wager we’d see WROL without the cannibalism or warlords. Just people losing their minds, destroying and looting everything in sight.
At the national level, I think Europe, but France especially, as a more appropriate example. These are clearly civilized countries which seemingly have no answer to the escalating crime, disorder, and replacement taking place. They seem intent on just surrendering the country. If they ever choose to fight back, I think that’s what would spark the civil war. It wouldn’t be a full-blown shooting war, either. Think of it more as out-of-control crime, frequent riots, and insurgency. Bombings, mass shootings, etc.
When you look at civil war in the developed world, be it Northern Ireland, Italy, etc., this is the form it’s taken. It’s easy to say things can go from 0-60 in a flash because of something that happened in Spain 80-some years ago, but even then, you’re looking at a society that endured shock after shock until it finally devolved into war.
Haiti’s a long ways off.
I think a more accurate example is South Africa. As the government has become ever more corrupt, the basic services are failing. Electrical blackouts, lack of water, corrupt government services, and other basic infrastructure failing occur from a lack of upkeep and proper management.
When the government cannot deal with the crime problems, someone will fill in. One example is a gated community. Any stranger is suspicious and watched. If they get violent, the neighbors come and deal with him. They call the undertaker to pick up the body rather than the police – faster service and no questions – problem solved.
I delayed a couple of days to comment. Like Fabian said, things will be different in different places.
Haiti is about the worst. They are the poorest of the poor in the Americas, yet monsters like the Clintons came in and looted what little they had. But their biggest problem is their spirituality—voodoo, witch doctors, transplanted Africa. Not modern Africa, but the Africa of the jungles. A life of bloodied claw and fang, even among people. It doesn’t take much to make that hell on earth.
A step above that is much of central and south America. While savages, otherwise called communists, and their criminal allies have done much to coarsen life there, there is still a sense of community in the neighborhoods. My sense is that if there is a total breakdown of law and order, that the neighborhoods will band together for self defense.
Europe has changed much since I was there. Their biggest challenge will be war. It will come from the east, leaving lands east of the Rhine largely depopulated. That includes Russia.
China will attack India and the U.S., but the long-suffering people of China will finally see their chance to have a regime change “with Chinese characteristics” i.e. they will slaughter what’s left of the CCP. I can only guess what will happen next.
The U.S. again the main problem will be war. Many of our largest cities will be nuked killing millions. Millions more will die fighting the imported illegals brought in by traitors and armed by the Chinese. Some areas of the country will be largely untouched by the war but will have to deal with being cut off from other parts of the country and their supplies. 1stMarineJarHead’s Dear Diary series would mirror what would happen in those areas. Those areas most effected by the fighting may end up largely depopulated. The strength of the U.S. that will prevent it from becoming like Haiti is the presence of Christianity—even many who are not Christians still adhere to Christian morality. Christian morality is a major civilizing factor. Personally I expect the war to last less than a year, the real challenge will be rebuilding after the war. Millions more may die because of the breakdown of transportation interrupting food supplies.
Will the U.S. become like Haiti? I think that is highly unlikely. Because of Christianity. We may lose between a third to two thirds of our population, which will make major changes in our lifestyle. Some industries may surprise us by continuing, such as computers (there are many smaller fabs that can turn out ARM processors and memory chips that are more powerful than even desktop computers less than 10 years ago) while others will be largely abandoned for lack of manpower, such as interstate trucking and airlines (with lack of manpower, who will maintain the interstates and runways?). Many of us who work in high tech may have to learn low tech jobs, like machining. But because of the civilizing effects of Christianity, it’s highly unlikely that we’ll turn out like Haiti.
@ RO
“The civilizing effects of Christianity “? You mean like Christian Germany at the time the Nazis came to power as they voted them into office? Christian Germany and Christian Europe which committed genocide against my people, the Roma and others? I feel so much better now, knowing that the Christians of the US will be a “civilizing “influence…….
Ani, “Christian Germany”? What Christian Germany? After over a century of German government attacks against Christianity, are you surprised as I am that there still were some Christians in Germany when the Nazis took power? Many Christians fled German persecution. And the Nazis were Marxists, not Christians at all. They doubled down on persecution of Christians. I lived in Germany, and spoke with survivors of Nazi anti-Christian persecution.
“Europe has changed much since I was there. Their biggest challenge will be war. It will come from the east, leaving lands east of the Rhine largely depopulated. That includes Russia.”
As living in Europe for my whole life i think that war will not come from the east but that we will end up in a whole lot of small civil wars, mostly against Muslims who openly say they want us white people dead. So there are a lot of attacks which the intent to rob/stab/rape and all gets coverd by a Koran verse…the duty of every muslim is to kill all non muslims….or so they say…
To explain the political climate in Europe i have this example: a Marroccan opens up fire with an AK47 in the town of Liege, Belgium.
(https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aanslag_in_Luik_op_13_december_2011) use translation button
Now this example of Islamic upbringing killed six and wounded 125 people…..with an totally illegal AK47…..and guess what the Belgian government did: they outlawed all antique weapons which were free for sale if 100 years or older. Even alarm guns made from cast zinc were put on licence….
So the logic of this new law due to a Marrocan shooting up people is lost to me…self defense and the possession of the means to defend taken away from the rest of us….the result is more heavy crime with less opposition from the public….the sheep goes to the slaughter is the motivation of those making laws like this…they are the true criminals of this world…..
The biggest threat to Europe is already here in our borders….speaks our language and gets pulled into the police force, gets put on high positions and makes laws and decisions against us….
two seperate shool outings forbade ALL childeren to eat or drink because other school childern who were muslims would be offended, accortding to the school heads….this is the age group 6 to 12….during one shool outing the childern were taken to a mosk, and after coming back to school most were puzzeld: the Imam had said those without fate ( islamic of course) were less than dogs….
This is Europe today. and most of this shit is never heard …the press keeps it away from the public.
War here will not come from the east, definitly not. The east might just be our only chance to fight back….