A total economic and social collapse is a catastrophic event characterized by the widespread dysfunction of critical systems, including government, economy, infrastructure, and basic services. While such a scenario is extreme, recognizing early warning signs can be crucial.
I have been monitoring the Cuba scenario. To me, that is the definition of a failed State holding to the remains of a collapsed country ruled by thugs terrified of a popular armed uprising. As our economy was destroyed by design, to control the population and crush the opposition among other goals, I believe I can describe the indications better than someone who never watched this happening.
In my research, a few events arose, as expected. Nevertheless, there were a couple of not-so-evident things that I’m going to point out.
By now, most of you reading this are very much aware of the loom and doom that destroyed the Venezuelan economy, and even these days, we feel panic every time the exchange rate with the USD changes.
For this past month (Oct. 2024), it went up 13%.
Enough to shake many people and make others begin thinking again about migrating.
Meanwhile, we have a single-digit “growing”, and a 50% inflation…in USDs. (This year!)
It is awesome to see how, despite oil production increasing at a snail’s pace, inflation seems to be looming again. It has been up almost 15% since 2022.
Here are some key indicators:
Economic Indicators
- Hyperinflation: Uncontrolled inflation that rapidly erodes the value of currency. Shortly after the bus driver got into the Palace we started to see how our currency started this infamous process. This was so severe that it wiped off most of the wealth and living standards. We haven’t been able to recover it ever since 2015 when it started. This is so self-explanatory that there is not too much need for further discussion.
- Commodity Shortages: Severe shortages of essential goods like food, water, and fuel. At the present moment, supermarkets are overflowing with all kinds of products. Of course, getting the money to buy them is the hard part. Most of them come from Brazil, for the sake of money laundering schemes related to gold, and the fees charged by the concession of the narcotics trafficking routes control to the “producers”. But can’t prove it though.
- Mass Unemployment: it occurs when a significant portion of a nation’s workforce is unable to find suitable employment. Here, “suitable” refers to jobs that align with an individual’s existing skills and experience. Unemployment in large amounts, is often viewed as a symptom of a deeper malaise within a society. It can serve as a powerful indicator of a nation’s economic health and can signal the onset of more severe societal problems. Mass unemployment is a financial issue at its core. When a large number of people are out of work, it has a ripple effect throughout the economy. Consumer spending decreases as people have less disposable income. Businesses are forced to lay off more workers because of the decline in demand, in a downward spiral.
- Recession/Depression: This can lead to a recession or even a depression, depending on the severity and duration of the unemployment. The effect of mass unemployment deteriorates the nation’s tax base. With fewer people working and paying taxes, governments have less revenue to fund essential services like education, healthcare, and infrastructure. This can lead to a decline in the quality of life for citizens and further erode the nation’s competitiveness. The social consequences of mass unemployment are equally profound. High unemployment rates are often associated with increased crime rates, societal unrest, and political instability.
- Uptick in property crime: When people are searching for work without success, they may turn to desperate measures to support themselves and their families. I have seen this happening. This means an increase in property crime, drug use, and other serious antisocial behaviors. We have experienced first-hand how mass unemployment is eroding the social cohesion. It is not as if we had faith in the ruling gang to begin with, but re-engineering of our social fabric executed by Cuban agents made it much worse. This led to a breakdown of social trust and made it difficult for communities to come together to solve problems. Mass unemployment can have a significant impact on a nation’s political landscape, and Venezuela is (sadly) one of the most relevant examples in modern History. Discontent with the handling of the economy can lead to political instability and even regime change (as it is already happening, happily!). Populist politicians often exploit the economic anxieties of unemployed workers to gain power, promising easy solutions to complex problems.
- Unsustainable Debt: A national debt that exceeds a country’s capacity to repay. An enormous external debt has exacerbated Venezuela’s economic crisis. This situation brings along a payload of negative consequences that have made our circumstances even worse. Let’s define this: debt is considered unsustainable when a country is incapable of paying back the interest or principal on its loans. This situation is known to generate a crisis involving both economic and societal aspects. The government is then forced to allocate a large portion of its resources to debt service, rather than investing in areas such as health, education, and infrastructure.
Traditionally, our country has experienced a weakness in the public sector regarding these three areas mentioned above. The trend then goes downhill with time, as the real responsible for the crisis are those controlling all the aspects of the public financial system, including the monetary policy. There are no experts that want to be involved in that mess, by the way; most of the “official” public “servants” with middle rank and choice makers don’t have neither the skills nor the will to do something to improve the situation. Their only goal is to perform as financial operators to help them in the cover-ups. The 100% control of the price of the USD is what makes our Central Bank a joke.
- Financial Market Collapse: The collapse of stock markets and a general loss of confidence in financial institutions. Mind you, in the most recent post-apo movie that sparkled our interest in one of the streaming sites, one of the main characters could read something was happening…in the charts of the stock exchanges of the world. I have read some good fiction, and it’s quite interesting to see how some of the characters are related to the financial world and can read the writings and make some predictions.
Social Indicators
- Increased Violence: crime, civil unrest, and social conflict are (obviously) among the most visible.
As a side note, why wait for this to happen? Any sane prepper should know that leaving early to avoid a potentially harmful situation is the way to go. You don’t have a place to Bug Out? Can you Bug in safely for a while until things clear up? Can you Bug out at all? Include here the State-sponsored actions to “pacify” the country and you will see how advanced the collapse is. Another failed State that we should be looking at is Cuba. The collapse is total there. Over one million people left in 2023 only.
Add this book to your library to keep all the Organic Prepper articles on dangerous times in your library.
- Mass Migration: A large-scale exodus of people seeking better living conditions. I consider this as the most painful indicator. Being part of these statistics, I can say I share encountered feelings regarding this. This is not only the most painful but the most visible. If things were livable, people wouldn’t flee away.
- Family Breakdown: A rise in family disintegration and social issues like poverty, mental health issues like depression, and substance abuse. Another catastrophic effect of all the circumstances mentioned above.
- Infrastructure Collapse: Failures in essential services such as electricity, water, and sanitation.
- Erosion of Trust: A widespread loss of confidence in government, businesses, and other institutions. This should have disappeared in Venezuela like back in the early 60s. The influence of the red Caribbean gang dates from that era, indeed.
Political Indicators
- Political Instability: Weak governance, frequent regime changes, and internal conflict.
- Corruption: Widespread corruption at all levels of government.
- Human Rights Abuses: Restrictions on freedom of speech, political persecution, and state-sponsored violence.
Environmental Indicators
- Environmental Degradation: Severe pollution, deforestation, and biodiversity loss.
- Resource Depletion: Scarcity of essential resources like water and energy.
- Natural Disasters: Increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters.
It’s crucial to note that these indicators often interact and can exacerbate one another.
A total collapse is typically a gradual process, marked by a series of interconnected events. It won´t be like your typical Hollywood collapse, where the family is someday having dinner or hanging out in a mall and the next fighting for survival with a horde of…whatever your favorite monster is.
While it may seem like a distant possibility, understanding the warning signs can help mitigate risks and prepare for potential challenges.
This is not intended to be a political article; on the contrary.
I found it amazing to learn that a war does not have to be necessarily declared; it can unfold without such formalities.
If it’s like this, then I’m afraid we should be pretty much aware of the facts, and the actions of everyone involved in such plays; and pay much less attention to the biased mainstream media nonsense.
Thanks for your reading, and your much-needed donations and sponsoring.
Stay safe, and keep tuned.
J.
What do you think?
Which, if any, of these signs have you seen in your area? Do you think our economy is too far gone to be saved?
Let’s discuss it in the comments section.
About Jose
Jose is an upper middle class professional. He is a former worker of the oil state company with a Bachelor’s degree from one of the best national Universities. He has an old but in good shape SUV, a good 150 square meters house in a nice neighborhood, in a small but (formerly) prosperous city with two middle size malls. Jose is a prepper and shares his eyewitness accounts and survival stories from the collapse of his beloved Venezuela. Jose and his younger kid are currently back in Venezuela, after the intention of setting up a new life in another country didn’t go well. The SARSCOV2 re-shaped the labor market and South American economy so he decided to give it a try to homestead in the mountains, and make a living as best as possible. But this time in his own land, and surrounded by family, friends and acquaintances, with all the gear and equipment collected, as the initial plan was.
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Excellent article. I wonder what you and Jose think of Argentina’s new President Milei. I like him and think he’s putting Argentina on the right track. Any chance of Venezuela electing someone similar, or has the corruptions gone too far.
I am only answering for myself and part of this is based on how much the establishment hates him, but I think President Milei seems great!
And funny!
Dear Ray White:
Personally I think that he will do (is already doing) his job flawlessly.
Maybe with his colorful personality and particular touch; but he’s done some amazing things like cutting the public spend in w0kism that was draining too much money, and fired a bunch of lazy people with positions inside the local governments that weren’t justified.
There is plenty of that in Argentina news sites in Spanish language.
Another positive trait is that the guy is very strong regarding his positions, and knows all the damage that commies have done both in Venezuela, Chile, Bolivia and Argentina. Mind you, Shining Path?
The best he is doing is promoting free entrepreneurship, and has stabilized their currency. The only country that could identify with Venezuela in the hyperinflation scenario is Argentina. Not even the events in the late 80s/1990s Peru were so devastating for an economy.
Venezuela and Argentina are siblings.
Robert Heinlein wrote a book back in the 1980’s called “Friday” which had a lot about the collapse of civilization.
In it he wrote that the erosion of common, everyday politeness was a key indicator of a collapsing society.
I think we have seen that in the USA for quite some time.
Our economy is actually very strong. Americans are just very spoiled and don’t know how to do without trivial luxuries. The average house was less than 600 square feet in the 1950’s and families had only one car. No wonder they could afford to let the wife stay home! A man can still support a family today in a 1950’s style lifestyle. Truthfully, it was a happier lifestyle–I am so old I remember.
And I remember when girls guarded their “reputation” and kept their legs closed. Today’s girls are taught to be whores and the abortion issue, and election of Trump are seen as a lack of respect for women. We MUST have compassion on these agonized liberal women, and teach them how 1950’s women got much more respect (and sex, btw) than today. You cannot recover your virginity–but you CAN recover your chastity. Importantly, nobody disrespects womanhood more than today’s “feminism.” Women are only any good if they are men. In employment, in sexual activity, and personality. We are as male as you are. In the 1950’s, the female was seen as having different talents than men–and put on a pedestal for it. Ladies first.
If you think todays economy is good, you haven’t spent a dime in the last four years.
Blessings,
OD
Please run for president we need more ignorant shitheads like you. Ideology and emotions only with none of the logic, just like a democrat on CNN.
It depends upon how you define a good economy.
If it means having money for extras, bigger than we need, and indulging in frequent materialism/credit living things aren’t good.
However if the definition of a good economy is being able to afford food, basic housing, transportation, paying for utilities, replacing broken appliances and simple pleasures like owning a pet, eating out occasionally, etc things are terrible.
One sign of a struggling economy is when the animal shelters are full of surrendered pets because people can no longer afford them. Another sign is an increase in purchases of low budget foods, skipping the beef in favor of chicken or beans and rice, more people using food pantries and thrift stores.
Petty theft goes up as well, at least in our area.
I’m seeing all the signs as well as struggling ourselves.
WHOA!!!!!!! thats a mouthful and scathing…..who/what are you? are you unhappy in America? if so, you can leave, we wont miss you and your life/attitude might be better off somewhere else…
Dear nitter,
Please remember that America is huge. You should be more specific. North? South? Center?
Yikes! Cool your jets. I was responding to the lady who didn’t think the economy was bad.
Why would talking about a bad economy mean I hate America and should leave?
It stinks. Isn’t that one of the primary reasons the election turned out the way it did?
(My apologies if I’m not reading the response lines right and you weren’t responding to me)
I love America. I live in what is always either the poorest or next to poorest state in America. Homelessness is continuing to increase. People work long and hard and after paying the bills too often can’t buy food. I only have Social Security as my income. Something in the neighborhood of $1700 a month is the national average. There are some with much much more than that but the biggest portion fall under that. I guess I’m bless as I fall slightly above the national average. I don’t owe a mortgage. My taxes are manageable, just barely. I could get a small amount of help with utilities and food and medical through the state. But I don’t. I do go occasionally to the county food pantry. I am eligible to go twice a month. I don’t. I don’t often go to the clinic. My visits are not extra but if I need a test or prescription I usually can’t afford it. I live on the edge even with living carefully and using a secondhand DYI solar power setup. I heat with a mix of pellets and tree limbs I cut and dry from trees on my property. My heater is a gravity fed Pellet rocket stove that for half of the year I heat my water on, cook on, and set a heat activated fan on to circulate the heat. The rest of the year I cook outside using sticks or use a propane cooktop and BBQ size propane bottles and use it sparingly. I’ve never started my propane furnace.
We have 4 definite seasons. A major snow storm is just moving out today. I grow a large garden and can a lot of food. I have chickens and have had meat rabbits until recently. I’d like to get some again.
Don’t tell me high prices aren’t making life hard for folks. It is almost impossible getting by today. I’m over 20 miles from stores, reasonably priced gas (as compared to local gas), 25 miles from church, 28 miles from the clinic or hospital, and 29 miles from the food pantry. At 77 I couldn’t survive on the streets like I see some trying to do. I buy little and very carefully.
I can remember my parents talking about dreaming of making $5000 a year. Todays poverty level income according to the government is just under $1500 a month for one person. A one room tiny studio apartment in town runs between $1100 and $2000 a month. That depends on the neighborhood. Remember the average SS income is just under $1700 a month. That means many don’t even have that much. Working families average Just over $4000 a month here. If that’s the average many have very little. I don’t know your income but this is the reality for a large portion of Americans. Three or four years ago it was hard to live. Today it is impossible. Remember too since Covid 19 used vehicles that used to be relatively cheap jumped up to nearly new prices. And cities here are too spread out for the busses running in the downtown to be used for work or church ect. I live out of town so there is nothing I can walk to.
Yes many are living just fine but too many really aren’t. My rare trips to the city with friends I see more and more people living on the streets. And a larger portion are older folks. Once you loose an apartment you fall through the cracks and food help, medical help, income support from welfare, are all out of reach. You must have an address. All it takes is to get sick and miss payments or loose a job and you’re out on the street. It isn’t always a choice or an addiction.
Good grief – judgmental much?
A man can still support a family today in a 50s lifestyle? Really? Because with current house prices (and the rent prices that go with that), it looks like after paying for housing and groceries, many people have very little left over. Assuming that both parents work, that is. If only one of them works, then it’s likely that some essential has to go, either health insurance, or heating, or essential repairs, or something.
I agree 100%
Americas demise so far has been a slow decline into insanity. The woke and alphabet people are the leading wave of the final wave. Civil war may be deferred at the moment. War against the whole US will be swift and devastating and soon. The rush to get out by the survivors to Canada and Mexico will overload those countries abilities resulting in their demise too. Those who hunker down till the main dying may have a decent chance of a harsh survival.
I don’t know where you get your ideas from, but it is not happening.
The US is geographically positioned, so that any overseas based military invasion is logistically impossible, Canada and Mexico would not stand a chance against us, as they are weak militarily by comparison,(as are most other nations). Add to that, the armed citizenry and it has no possibility of success.
So short of a nuclear exchange, that is out of the question. Even a nuclear exchange would destroy the attacker completely. As for the effect on the US would be, it depend upon what defenses we have that the government has kept secret and how effective they would be.
So that brings us to a cultural invasion of illegals. This has a greater probability of success as they do not need to be supplied from overseas. Plus some people will greet them with open arms, not recognizing the danger to the country.
A civil (political based) or Race based war, is the greatest possibility. Even it would probably be short lived. The only question is how much damage it would do and whether it was easily recoverable from in the short term.
When the mammoth sized Soviet Union finally collapsed it had been through multiple currency devaluations. People who had summer cottages (called dachas) learned to grow food in their backyards. The media and government schools in such countries never tell the truth about inflation. When only a few goods go up in price it’s usually a market place phenomenon. However when prices go up across the whole economy it’s usually the government looting the purchasing power of the money by counterfeiting. Historically that was a death penalty offense when committed by individuals (including in the US) but when a central bank is created by government to do the same thing … the population has no easy way to hold it accountable and punish it.
Typically such counterfeiting (to steal money’s purchasing power) is usually to fund warfare and welfare operations beyond what the published tax rates yield. The US presidential election in 1912 was rigged by secret British money so their favorite puppet Woodrow Wilson would win. Sadly that worked … and Wilson signed off on creation of the US federal reserve (our counterfeiting central bank). He signed off on a constitutional amendment that ripped states’ power to appoint and recall US senators and turned their selection into election competition that became auctions among oligarchs for campaign money. Wilson also shut down most (not quite all) of the 30-some newspaper ads the German government had paid for across America to warn Americans not to sail on the passenger liner Lusitania in 1915 because it would be carrying secret munitions (illegal under international law for non-combatants). Even though Wilson was trying to maximize the number of Americans to be murdered when that ship would be torpedoed … it wasn’t enough to convince Americans that we had any good reason to join the European civil war in progress (later to be called World War I). Later after Wilson found other reasons to involve America in that war … the federal reserve’s counterfeiting raised prices across the US economy by about 15%. That set the pattern for federal spending ever since and by the time of today’s Biden administration … irresponsible spending was adding another trillion dollars in debt every 100 days or so.
One of the American founders, John Adams, said that our constitution is fit only for a moral people. Sadly when politicians with zero morals gain power (and money is sadly converted to fiat) even if it takes multiple lifetimes … fiat money is always eventually destroyed — with thousands of years of no exceptions.
–Lewis
Yes, those definitely are signs things are eroding but I have been hearing this all my life and even in my father’s life but it has never happened.
That does not mean it will never happen but we have recovered here and there and life goes on….
Dear Insane,
I remember (and have the capture somewhere) that back in July 2018 I posted in FB something like “Is it just me or anyone else believes that we’re due for a global pandemics?”.
No need to further explain.
I thought that it would be at least 10-15 more years and give me some time to prepare…but caught me in my worst stage financially speaking, in a foreign country, with my kid. Meaning, with my pants down.
It’s impossible to know when the asteroid will hit.
Taxes are not the means to fund government. Taxes are the means to keep people poor so they can be controlled and subjugated. Inflation is too much money chasing too few goods and services. The Fed and the government create this money in order to inflate prices so that consumers grow ever weaker and more helpless.
Dear Daisy,
Longtime occasional visitor, here.
Love your content.
Just want to bring one thing to your attention:
Your masthead takes up TWO-THIRDS of my screen!
Been this way for a couple of years.
Best wishes.
A kindergarten kiddie doing finger painting doesn’t have the right to call their work research.
This “research” is garbage, because you willfully ignore the fact that Cuba has been under oppressive embargoes and punitive sanctions for decades.
Dear Heath Blair:
Every professional that had to wrote a thesis to get his/her degree should know how to do a research.
This said, I didn’t “ignore” the “oppressive” embargo of that God’s forgiven island.
It’s that simply I don’t care that narrative. If someone has the standards to swallow it, be my guess. I know it’s not true because I know Cubans that told me personally how the Castro Bros. and their gang have been using this excuse to pocket the money that belongs to the public treasury.
Take a plane to Spain and ask for an interview with the Fidel’s grandson. See the Rolex he uses in the left wrist, and the Mercedes he exhibits in his IG account.
The bus driver and cronies scream and kick, mouth-foaming about the “sanctions”. Yet they drive brand new Toyotas paid with stolen minerals and illegal shipments of our crude oil that should go to hospitals and schools.
The Castros regime has been so insidious that destroyed our industry and economy.
Don’t believe me?
Look for the translated videos in YouTube by serious journalists like Sebastiana Barráez, Norbey Marín or Casto Ocando.
My information and research is based on the facts they expose.
Feel free to get your own Cubans to interview and post a response here then, instead of calling a +40 years old dad a “kid” and his serious job, risking his neck to bring the truth to your eyes, a “finger painting”.
Chao! que estés bien.
J.
You’re talking nonsense and personal antidotes that cannot be proven or verified.
I’ll just refer you to my first comment, which you haven’t addressed.
Your infantile response is just proving my original point is correct.
“Look for the translated videos…”
Nope, it’s your argument, it’s your argument to prove.
You anti Cuban types cannot bring yourself to admit that the punitive embargos and sanctions over the decades have had a deleterious effect on Cuba.
Fyi this website “moderates”? I thought we believe in the first amendment? Does MSNBC own this website?
Hi, Jacob! We always do if it is a new-to-us IP or contains a link. We’d be completely overrun with spam otherwise.
Remember, the future belongs to the prepared.
Dear Hank Hellman:
Right on the spot, amigo.
Thanks for commenting!
Stay safe.
J.
I’m horrified each day reading the lists of major retailers filing for either chapter 7 (totally gone/erased) or chapter 11 (reorganization/floundering but still trying) bankruptcy. It doesn’t speak well for the state of our economy. The jobs lost and growing insecurity are not good for our people. Top that off with severe weather events and wild fires scattered across the nation. Destruction, death, homes lost, infrastructure erased, lives that stay endangered by pollution, by mold growing where water has soaked into structures. Land literally washed away. Pastures once lush often have become literal fields of stone. People left destitute of the necessities for survival. A recipe for desperation and disease. A government we have been trained to believe will be there to cushion the blows and promote survival, but it’s strangely not helping quickly or as needed for survival. It’s building camps for its workers and maybe some long term work helping local cities in rebuilding. FEMA seems to be making big promises and not meeting expectations or the real immediate needs of survival.
Our a fellow citizens come bearing gifts and willing hands to do the necessary work. They come in helicopters doing emergency rescues and assessing needs and delivering things needed for survival. They came with mules and hunted the more remote scattered folks in need. Some give money, some give stuff, some build and insulate sheds while others deliver donated motorhome and travel trailers. Some come to help clean and some cook and giveaway meals. Good hearts and helping hands serving their neighbors. I wonder what do the fire victims come away with in their experience? The hurricane survivors are getting better coverage. Everything is just as gone if it burns or if it washes away. I’m just glad for the volunteers who show up to help. That is the best help there is going to be. Forever friends and connections are being made.
I’ve a seen California and New Mexico on fire and the subsequent floods. It seems every place is facing horrific disasters and destruction. Numerous tornadoes. And then another business long doing well is failing and filing for some form of bankruptcy.
If we didn’t have God and each other, far fewer would survive or recover.
It’s just a mind boggling time.
Dear Clergylady:
You are right. Some years are worst than other ones; just please keep in mind that mainstream media will magnify all the awful things happening, and look to other side no avoid seeing the good ones.
Good news don’t sell.
However, real and painful man-made SHTF like the one we’re living through down here, are being “ignored” because they poke right in the eye of people with very powerful interests.
I mean the Iran Guard business, like supermarkets and other places they use to launder money and finance themselves, and the ChiCom party that wants to occupy the whole South of America. They even had a “contract” with the late Kirchner government in Argentina to “rent” a military base. Javier Milei stopped that right on their tracks, but the news barely made it to the media.
People is resilient.
Solidarity flourish, and that is a wonderful thing to happen.
North, Center and South must work united. We are one of the few continents that haven’t had serious conflicts in a long time.
And that is great.
We have to work to keep it like this.
Stay safe.
J.
“Human Rights Abuses: Restrictions on freedom of speech, political persecution, and state-sponsored violence.”
You mean shit like this Jose?
https://www.dailywire.com/news/exclusive-fema-official-ordered-relief-workers-to-skip-houses-with-trump-signs
WOW. That makes me furious.
And people wonder why nobody trusts FEMA.
Dear ~jim:
Exactly. Mind you, Biden lifted up the restrictions to the bus driver. Who is being sponsored by ChiCom. Who had hard evidence enough to get Hunter in the can for life. There is a side of this story that we don’t know…
Everything you describe fits the USA even better! 😄
Dear Art Gardener
And I’m sure some of the UK people could agree.
Could I trouble you for the name of the post-apo movie? I’d like to check it out.
Dear Scout Motto,
I just read your question. For some reason, the notifications don’t make it to my inbox. Going to fix that.
The movie I mentioned is “Leave The World Behind”.
I should have mentioned it. Sorry about that.
Take care!
Don’t worry, everything is going to be okay! Trump won! America is going to be great again.