By the author of Street Survivalism: A Practical Training Guide To Life In The City and The Ultimate Survival Gear Handbook
I frequently seek a distanced opinion on something happening in my neck of the woods. Sometimes, being too close to the action (and relying on local media and experts) can prevent us from having a more accurate, unbiased view of things.
Occasionally, I get asked what I think of a particular event happening in another region. Not because I’m an expert in geopolitics. It’s just people merely seeking an outsider’s opinion on some domestic issue as well.
With that in mind, I wanted to address the possibility of the U.S. going into a civil war, why I believe it won’t happen, and what I think is more probable.
The prospect of another civil war permeates the collective American mind.
Or so it seems to this foreigner. It’s expected that this sentiment will surface in times of crisis. However, most people have only a vague idea of how an 1861 replay would happen. Whenever I’m discussing with someone and ask how they envision a civil war in the United States playing out, most replies are vague generalizations like “city vs. rural,” “neighbors vs. neighbors,” or “red vs. blue.”
It’d be foolish to deny that a civil war in the U.S. is possible, and the sentiment is genuine and cannot be overlooked. But the real question is how probable, how likely – not if it’s possible or not.
Without a logical explanation of how a civil conflict would start and unfold in the real world, what form it would take in contemporary America with regards to practical aspects, nor much consideration to other factors and components surrounding it, I can’t see how this idea stands.
A good place to start is a concise definition of “civil war.'”
There are tens of different definitions out there. I’ll stick to the most objective and thorough explanation I could find:
“…a politically orchestrated, widespread, protracted, physically violent battle that takes place within a nation, usually between sizable/statistically significant factions of its residents or citizens over the exclusive use of physical force within the nation… The challengers may want to unseat the rulers with the monopoly of force over the state’s remaining territory, or they may aim to secede from a portion of the original area.” [SOURCE]
Every war is a conflict, but not every conflict is a war.
This distinction is significant because it emphasizes the fundamental differences between particular phenomena. A civil war is a specific event with specific dynamics and duration.
Revolutions, riots, crime waves, and other demonstrations aren’t civil wars. Drug cartels battling each other for power and territory, or a hundred criminal gangs fighting each violently and terrorizing the population and the authorities, are not civil wars.
Some political scientists define civil war by numbers, though 1,000 yearly deaths motivated by religion or race would characterize civil war just as ones caused by politics or civil rights. Besides, everything can be politicized.
So while numbers are important – especially when talking about human lives – assigning political motives to intra-violence may not be as clear-cut in times of generalized turmoil and confusion, when everyone is at each other’s throats for a dozen or more different things.
(Want to know how to starve the beast? Check out our free QUICKSTART Guide.)
America, today.
We can’t ignore the wide gaps and radicalization in politics, civil rights, and also wealth that are currently present, as has been said numerous times (I certainly cannot because the same is happening in my own country).
The genuine concern, though, is whether or not this will result in an actual, full-fledged Civil War on American soil. It’s time to see the reasons why it has a low probability of happening in the foreseeable future:
The U.S. government’s power
The American government has solid institutions and vast financial, logistical, and military resources. More importantly, it can promptly summon these resources to quell actions that could break public order, seriously disrupt infrastructure, or attempt to overthrow the central or state powers.
Is it realistic to believe that the dominant force won’t act quickly and forcefully to end any uprising or concerted intra-violence – before it turns into a full-blown civil war? Despite the official machine’s inefficiency and other flaws, we should not underestimate its capacity and determination.
The incentives
Legendary investor Charlie Munger wisely said, “Show me the incentive, and I’ll show you the outcome.” When searching and analyzing potential incentives for Americans to go to war with each other or against the government, now or soon, I see more questions than answers.
Is life in the U.S. objectively that bad right now? What civil rights have been lost? Would liberals and conservatives fight each other to the death – again, without the swift intervention of state and federal forces? If Americans are so divided, could they unite against the government?
I’m not saying everything is fine because it’s not – far from it. But anger, confusion, and revolt aren’t incentives. These things fluctuate even in healthy societies—division and polarization rise and drop. Things will come to blows in some places eventually. But are they reaching a tipping point nationally at the moment?
The prerequisites
Now to more physical matters: even if most (or all) other conditions are present, we should consider whether or not there is sufficient funding, coordination, direction, leadership, and logistics for a high-intensity, sustained, widespread combat, regardless of the shape a civil war would take in the U.S.
Americans have access to more than enough weapons and ammunition to wreak significant harm, that’s for sure. Can the U.S. become a 1990s Serbia or a 1970s Lebanon based on that? Again, in theory, it can. However, firearms alone don’t make a war.
Additionally, if Americans somehow decide to unite and attempt to overthrow the government, would that be sufficient to fight off the police, military, and all other special forces?
The global interests
There’s no question that there are some foreign and domestic enemies who would love to see the United States consuming itself in a bloody civil war. However, the nations and organizations that may want the U.S. destroyed are too few, too poor, and too weak to influence or sway things that way.
America’s real adversaries are more intelligent and know they (and the rest of the world) can’t go too far without each other. Therefore, some only want its influence and overreach reduced and a more balanced composition of global forces. Others seem more interested in following their path and leaving the U.S. power sphere for new alliances.
Many U.S. adversaries (and also allies) are more interested in maintaining an advantageous position to gain political or economic advantages (or both). A historical fact: as the Empire was falling, many of Rome’s “enemies” weren’t trying to bring it down but rather seeking to enjoy the perks and benefits of its lifestyle.
This is a complex subject, and others are more apt to talk about it than me. I’m bringing that up to argue that while a lot of outside and inside meddling and sabotage is occurring, things are never simple nor always what they seem on the surface. None of that is new, either – and shouldn’t steer the U.S. into civil war by itself.
The “competition”
There’s no shortage of crap hitting the fan in the world right now. Let’s consider the likelihood of a civil war against the possibility of the U.S. getting directly involved in the Ukraine conflict or going to war against China.
Because that’s what governments do to create a distraction from the problems they make themselves and unite the population around a common cause. The incumbents and their supporters seem pretty keen on that, to be honest.
The Civil War rhetoric
The fear of America breaking apart and coming to blows became evident recently. The 2020 elections, J6, the revision of Roe v. Wade, and the attacks on the Second Amendment are just a few wedges testing the fabric of American society and ratcheting up the rhetoric of civil war. There’s more coming.
Before these events, experts, analysts, politicians, and media outlets asserted the United States would enter a civil war “whether things go one way or another.” There’s been a lot of violence, some of which was motivated by politics. Yet, no visible, significant mobilizations from any organized part of society toward a protracted civil conflict.
The precedent
The fact that it has happened before is often used as justification for the possibility of a civil war in the United States. What does that mean for the future? Not much. It’s possible because everything is possible, not because it has happened before. It could happen for the first time.
I’m trying to argue that for some events to occur, a long and complicated list of preconditions and predecessors must be present simultaneously. Civil war is not a fire waiting for a spark to happen. Even in a banana republic or during a severe crisis, it’s no trivial matter. Other than the sentiment, there’s not much indicating it’s imminent.
The United States is not a disjointed banana republic.
American society may be angered, confused by everything happening, and even hopeless about the future. However, the fact that the United States is still the world’s top superpower is unaffected by the general mood.
Many people may feel that way, but this impression is false. I’m not downplaying the hardship; just pointing out the difference between the U.S., a developing nation, and a shithole country. Thirdworldization is real, and it’s no small SHTF. People are pissed with the decline in living standards and the loss of privileges. But, no actual, broad disruptions have materialized (not yet).
It would be quite a leap for wealthy and stable nations (and even some emerging ones) to get from their actual position to a coup d’etat or widespread, organized civil conflict and chaos on the scale of Haiti or Sri Lanka. Besides, the U.S. is no exception: the current crisis is global (my apologies to the sensitive and entitled).
This is what I believe can happen in the U.S.
The economy and finance timebomb is already on the countdown. Even if it doesn’t explode, taking the entire system with it, the mad scrambling to keep it alive will be enough to stifle growth. That alone can bring about a crisis so dire that it will rip people’s faces off.
A false flag or Black Swan event could pop up by the end of the year or early 2023 to create a way out for the elites. It could be a dirty bomb, a nuclear strike, another virus, a war with China, or a sovereign debt default. I’d rank those and others as more probable. A civil war in the U.S. would be too contained, and the powers that be need something more significant to cover their mess this time.
Either way, until something major happens (if it does), unrest and other social disturbances will spread and get worse. Essentially, an escalation of violence and criminality that’s already taking place everywhere. Mass shootings, unprovoked attacks, climate terrorism, authoritarianism, cyberattacks. That’s the stuff that happens in real life during a secular downturn cycle.
Also, expect protests, strikes, sit-ins, and other manifestations to increase in frequency, number, and violence. Especially as the recession worsens and industries and businesses fail in huge numbers, causing bankruptcy, shortages, and mass layoffs that will throw larger portions of the population into misery and despair.
(Want uninterrupted access to The Organic Prepper? Check out our paid-subscription newsletter.)
Closing Thoughts
I realize this is a controversial subject. As stated at the outset, I’m not an authority, just a distanced observer giving my opinion on an issue that affects everyone, not only Americans. I’m not trying to be contentious or convincing, much less fanciful. Just make people think and prepare.
It’s ironic because I draw a lot of criticism when I make this argument. For some reason, the idea of a civil war not happening soon in the U.S. doesn’t sit well in some circles or with some people. There’s a lot of pent-up energy and tension-building out there, and that must find an escape valve somehow – real or imaginary.
I am expressing this viewpoint in good faith and with the appropriate deference. Believing (and hoping) that something unpleasant will not occur is an optimistic perspective. That is one prediction I hope I’m right about, and things stay calm in Uncle Sam’s land.
For now, if you’re not in Haiti, Ukraine, or another country where horrible things are happening, you have several reasons to be optimistic. Turn off the news and spend some time alone with yourself. Take a stroll outside and observe people coming and going. Exercise, go outdoors, play with the kids, and pet your dog (or cat).
It’s not 2019 anymore. But it’s also not the end of the world.
What do you think?
Do you believe the US will have a civil war? Do you think we’ll be able to move past our differences? What are your predictions? Let’s talk about the future of the US in the comments.
About Fabian
Fabian Ommar is a 50-year-old middle-class worker living in São Paulo, Brazil. Far from being the super-tactical or highly trained military survivor type, he is the average joe who since his youth has been involved with self-reliance and outdoor activities and the practical side of balancing life between a big city and rural/wilderness settings. Since the 2008 world economic crisis, he has been training and helping others in his area to become better prepared for the “constant, slow-burning SHTF” of living in a 3rd world country.
Fabian’s ebook, Street Survivalism: A Practical Training Guide To Life In The City , is a practical training method for common city dwellers based on the lifestyle of the homeless (real-life survivors) to be more psychologically, mentally, and physically prepared to deal with the harsh reality of the streets during normal or difficult times. He’s also the author of The Ultimate Survival Gear Handbook.
You can follow Fabian on Instagram @stoicsurvivor
I don’t see the possibility of Civil War in the U.S. What I do see is the rise of vigilantism. People arming themselves to protect themselves and their neighbors.
Especially in states like IL where they’re eliminating bond. Just received a mail flyer promoting the retraction of the safe-t act. It included photos of criminals currently being held in the county jail who will be released. 2 are charged with 1st degree murder, a few with aggravated battery. Since the police will no longer remove an intruder from our home we plan to protect ourselves any way needed. Still trying to get out of this horrible place. I have little hope that our governor will be voted out because there are way too many people blinded with ignorance and don’t realize the impact of this.
Actually the bail issue is a red herring. It really only applies to non-violent criminals. Additionally, the judge in every one of those cases can keep the criminal in jail if they believe that the individual is a risk for the community and/or the criminal will not return for their court date. But whoever sent you the flyer wants to manipulate you.
Not True James Gregg. Violent criminals are routinely released with no bail. In Illinois the democrats there have made it the law that violent criminals must be released with no cash bail.
See
NY Man Released Without Bail After Savagely Beating Ex-Wife Immediately Kills Her Upon Release
Adam Bennefield was released and slapped with misdemeanor charges after savagely beating his 30-year-old ex-wife for over eight minutes
by Cullen McCue November 2, 2022
https://nationalfile.com/ny-man-released-without-bail-after-savagely-beating-ex-wife-immediately-kills-her-upon-release/
See
Gangsta’s Paradise: Illinois Democrats Pass New Law to Spread Chicago Crime to the Rest of the State
By Kevin Downey Jr. 4:52 PM on September 09, 2022
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/kevindowneyjr/2022/09/09/gangstas-paradise-illinois-democrats-pass-new-law-to-spread-chicago-crime-to-the-rest-of-the-state-n1628097
Many of the thug-loving laws that have made Chicago an outhouse are spreading to the entire state of Illinois beginning Jan. 1, 2023….
“SAFE-T Act” Fast Facts:
The new law eliminates cash bail for almost every crime, including 2nd-degree murder, kidnapping, and armed robbery.
Criminals with ankle bracelet locators who don’t show up to court can’t be pursued for 48 hours, giving them ample time to drive almost anywhere in North America.
Police will no longer be able to remove trespassers from your property.
Sorry Rise is inaccurate .. that has already occurred and like minded people are thinking about community more now than ever before.
Thought provoking as usual Fabian.
Speaking of provoking, since as long as I can remember being old enough to vote and be engaged in social, economic, and political goings on, the “other sides” of the spoon fed left vs. right political paradigm have done an amazing job of neglecting, marginalizing, maligning and (more recently) identifying “enemies”. This statement of mine is indisputable from any point of view beit left, right or squarely in between.
That being said, the question I feel left out in your article is:
Does the USA political machinery desire another American Civil conflict?
I see more benefits for a corrupt system to engineer and gin up something rather than an organic uprising with structure and clear goals.
I see confusion, chaos, and outright murders perpetrated en mass in that chaos. I see good vs. evil locally being tested.
But like you, who’s to say? So I’ll just keep to myself, keep mine safe and go milk my cows and tend my flocks.
~Jim,
I can see where a party could use such a situation to their advantage, declaring martial law, suspending normal every day life, elections suspended, dissidents arrested and jailed.
Or even deliberately collapse the entire society/economy and then try to make a power grab.
An interesting theory.
Agreed. It may seem like that’s what big guv wants. Seems more likely to be bait and switch to lure Americans further down the road to neutralized serfdom. It may be cast as “civil war” as mere theater. There are enough zombies now who will believe anything and behave just how they’ve been recently conditioned to do. Yet, there are still a vast number of Americans who are stable and savvy, moving through all the intersections they come to with their heads on a swivel just as they learned in Drivers’ Ed.
Actually a Civil War is exactly what the Elite are planning. The media would not be pushing the idea, if they were not told to it. Such a concept must first reach the national mind as an idea that is a possibility, which the media has done a good job of doing. Then as an action that is needed to occur; this is the political rhetoric of the Left. That the Right is destroying America, that they are violent, etc. To round up and/or exterminate the unvaxxed, or all those who disagree with you. When Violent opposition to those who disagree with you is the best option, rather than peaceful discourse. A large portion of the population must be primed and ready to explode, for this to occur. Only when these things are at their peak, can a event trigger a Civil War.
What the Author misses; is that the US has become a Banana Republic. The government is corrupt, run by the Deep State. They persecute and prosecute political opponents and activists. Elections are not secure and cheating is rampant(even though they deny it). The Society is divided on the social directions it should take. Add to that, that all kinds of violence is common place and you have the fixings for a good, old fashioned, Civil War.
As far as our once mighty military stopping it, they are equally divided and what is worse is that many of them are from foreign countries(basically mercenaries, being promised citizenship for service), or are their for the
various benefits(trans operations, free medical, college money, career training, citizenship, pensions, etc.) and lack the will to fight for such a cause.
As little as 5% of the population would outnumber the total numbers of all military personnel. Many of which are in troop support roles and not combat troops.
Since the country is so divided, there would be no real unified safe zone, no safe place to manufacture or warehouse military supplies, no safe supply routes. Having to guard your supplies from the field, to the manufacturer, to the troops would greatly impact and limit (in reality it would destroy) any combat capability the Military had. The Logistics of supply, makes or breaks any Military force.
Bravo! The only intelligent comment so far.
@Jim and Mic, well said!! I truly believe everything we’ve gone thru in the past 2 years has been engineered as against us(Covid, supply chain, the coming food shortages, fuel, ect). Rural America would have to be pushed hard to bring for us to have conflict with each other………
Putting all the theoretical and academic discussions and definitions aside, Jim and Mic are much closer to our current Paradigm. Said differently, there is one critical flaw in Fabian’s argument: “The American government has solid institutions and vast financial, logistical, and military resources. More importantly, it can promptly summon these resources to quell actions that could break public order, seriously disrupt infrastructure, or attempt to overthrow the central or state powers.”
The underlying assumption that the Government does NOT want a Civil War is no longer correct. In fact, from observation I would argue the exact opposite is true! If you were alert, doing deep research and critical thinking when our country begin to transform in 2008-09 — with a new President who’s goal was to “transform the nation,” you would have discovered this Paradigm change.
EVERYTHING being orchestrated or directed by the Government (and the true power behind it) is on a Vector towards dividing the country into an extreme left vs right polarization. Meanwhile, a host of man-made events have been set in motion to orchestrate a devastating economic collapse – while aggravating human suffering and further isolating the division between left and right.
The end game? A Civil War! The central strategy will probably resolve to fighting over food. Once the man-made events have pushed human suffering and hardships to a critical level, other control measures will kick in such as the Health Passport with a Social Credit system.
Without all the Vaccines and Boosters (and approved Social Credit behavior), you will not have access to food. For that matter, you won’t be able to drive or travel, work, have professional credentials, enter a public building, attend events, put your kids in school, and so on if you don’t have your Health Passport up to date.
Then the “Haves” will be empowered and required to enforce and police society, and prevent the “Have Nots” from buying food or engaging in any of the above activities & privileges granted by the Health Passport. If you doubt these words, just read the WEF documents!
It is gratifying to see some deeper thinking going on here in the Comments, such as ~Jim and Mic described. Hopefully, this trend will continue! A problem well defined is a problem half solved. Said differently, IMHO our best option is to sidestep the Government (Deep State, WEF, etc) and not try to directly engaged them. Very easy to do, and that is the central strategy behind my preparations.
Nothing can replace the idea of freedom. The US government cannot win a conflict with the people. To start with–the army, and such would lose 50% of their people. This would be a gorilla war, and it would go on for a decade. no one would be safe. and i do mean no one. there isn’t a rock big enough for you to hide under. so, your assumptions the all might US government would win a war with patriots is meaningless. when a patriot picks up a rifle , it is to defend his freedoms and family. Things he will kill for. An army grunt is doing what he is told—–two different things.
Some of what you say is right and true; most of it, however, is not.
To keep my reply short, I’ll just say this: Go back through your own comment and re-read each sentence in the light of not having any electricity or, much more likely, not having anything even remotely like the supply of electricity we have now.
The power grid cannot be defended. That’s not debatable. Nearly everything you postulate (social credit system; vaccine passport; inability to drive or move about freely; etc.) depends 1000% on a universal and unfailing supply of electricity–things that we do not have and are not going to have. And no amount of wishing or guessing or anything else can change that fact. And it IS a fact.
Martial law is not enforceable. The numbers simply are not there. Run the numbers yourself, and you’ll see.
What’s going to happen is that–precisely as they have been doing for a decade or more–the states will continue going their own way until FedGov is simply no longer paid any attention to by anybody.
There *will* be a civil war, but it will take place only in certain places; it will not be general. It will be easy to escape or avoid it.
What’s going to happen here is exactly what we saw happen in eastern Europe in the late 80s and in the 90s: The people will simply turn their backs on the central government and ignore it. It will cease to have any relevance at all, let alone power. IT will evaporate in the end. Ten yeas from now at most.
The thing that internet commenters ignore is that the VAST majority of the population is utterly in the dark about everything that internet commenters live and breathe. Because it looms large in the minds of internet commenters, they think that EVERYBODY knows this or that, but they DON’T.
BUT … once Joe Sixpack FINALLY gets it through his pret-ty thick skull that Uncle Sam (and a few states) MEANS to take away his car–for good–he will put a stop to the whole sh*t-show. He and his buddies will arm themselves and pay a visit to their state representatives and explain to them the facts of life and will tell them to get their goat-smellin’ a** up to [name of state capital] and FIX this mess! And the representatives will DO IT.
The governors will talk on the phone and pipelines and refineries and so forth will re-start. Things will slowly and painfully return to something that will then be the new normal, and we shall have a standard of living comparable to that of Americans in 1910 or thereabouts. The financial center of the world will move to Shanghai or Singapore. We’ll have hospitals, but they won’t be air conditioned or “modern” leet alone advanced. ALL of that is going away.
A civil war in America will not be widespread. The majority of the fighting will be for control of this “major city” or that. And when one side or the other has gained control of that city, they will find themselves in possession of something that they can’t manage. The cities will decay and be mostly depopulated. The population will redistribute itself–and that is already happening.
In the end, the present-day USA will look like a map of Italy or Germany in the 15th century: an amalgam of city-states eking out a living via local production of food under forms of “government” that are likely to be something approaching feudal, which will be a good thing, remembering that feudalism does NOT imply serfdom.
Everything BIG that we take for granted today will be GONE. There is not enough electricity for anything else, and TPTB are busy RIGHT NOW shutting down all forms of energy generation throughout the Western World, and it’s too late now to stop that. We’re going to have to live with almost-primitive conditions for 20 years or more.
Just get ready to go back to an early 20th-century standard of living. There may or may not be railroads and trains operating. You’ll have a car, but you won’t be able to go very far in it, and you won’t travel much AT ALL. Life will be LOCAL, and so will “government.” Everything connected with petroleum will be very expensive AND RARE.
In the past I have gone back and forth on this one.
As of late, reading some of the crazy in the media to include some historian declaring,
“. . . a historian will say what was next date tonight and this week was the fact whether we will be a democracy in the future, whether our children will be arrested and conceivably killed — we’re on the edge of a brutal authoritarian system, and it could be a week away.”
If you read that and said, “What?” I was right there with you.
So, could it come down to Red vs Blue? Looking at election maps at the county level, dont think it could happen. Drill it down even further, fighting based on what political sign you had in your yard? Neighbors shooting neighbors? In some areas, that could be bad for some people in the minority of that voting block.
I also know of some life long Democrats who look at what their party has become and said a hard, “NO!” Two prominent ones are Bill Maher and Elon Musk.
Lets take a look at the war in the Ukraine.
The Russians and the Ukrainians faced ammo, food and fuel shortages. If the shooting starts, really think that fuel truck driver is going to risk his life to make that delivery? He is going to beat feet for home. Same goes for that Wally World trucker with a delivery of food.
I read one guy declared he had 20,000 rounds of ammo stockpiled. Sounds like a lot right? Not if you are getting into firefights on a daily or weekly basis.
The Russians did a series of air strikes on the Ukraine electrical grid, plunging nearly half of the country into darkness. The current temp in Kiev as of this writing is 46 degrees. Low of 43. I read an article where they have to use hand pumps for water. Wait and see if there are water sanitation issues, water born illnesses.
The Nord Stream pipeline and the Ukraine electrical grid destruction illustrates how vulnerable infrastructure is. The US grid is even worse with some power generating facilities a long way off from consumers. That is hundreds and in some cases thousands of miles of electrical lines, then add in the sub-stations, and transformers. Nat gas is the same. Seen drone attacks against infrastructure too. No need for that F-15.
In the end, warfare is a question of economics and logistics.
Does the government really have that kind of economics and logistics at scale of the land mass as America? The man power?
The Ukrainians are getting supplies and military support from the US, the EU and some other countries. Would we see that kind of support in a US civil war? Reading recent articles about how the military is not meeting recruitment quotas, how much in billions of our own military supplies we have sent to the Ukraine, diesel supply down to only 20 some days supply, the SPR getting even more drained, possible food shortages in the near term, and the heated mid-terms . . . seems to me to be the making of a perfect storm.
To quote General Omar Bradley, “Amateurs talk strategy; professionals talk logistics”. And that pretty much says it all. Couldn’t agree more with you post my friend, but it seems that I was typing pretty much the same thing at the same time. Governments do have immense power…..during normal times. But as you have pointed out, these times are a long way from normal. Exerting power when you have control of energy, food and finances is one thing. But when there is a global meltdown, and you lose control of those basics, because they are simply not available, it’s a whole different ball game.
The Lone Canadian,
LOL! I thought the same, we were typing similar posts.
As myself and others have mentioned in the past, “Best laid plans are only as good as first contact.”
Bullets start flying, normal goes out the window. That includes the JIT/BAU system. I mention the two truck drivers hauling fuel and food. Same goes for dang near everyone else not interested in fighting. Really think that teacher, school bus driver, grocery store stocker, fast food worker, gas station attendant etc. are going to go to work if they can hear an on-going firefight from their front door? Arty fire in the distance?
Our government has a lot of power . . . as long as the power stays on, we have the internet, turn on the tap and the water flows.
Without those things, no comms, no banking system, heating or cooling, and the toilet wont flush. Their circle in some regards gets smaller.
There will be no shooting civil war with red Americans against blue Americans. The violent left is minuscule. The msm makes them look bigger than they actually are. If they actually tried a violent revolution they would be squashed like bugs. Not just by our military but by ordinary 2A Americans. And their cheerleaders the msm knows it. The msm jackals, the propaganda arm of the democrat party love to push inflammatory, divisive rhetoric like that supposed historian who said “we’re on the edge of a brutal authoritarian system, and it could be a week away”. The more hate and division they can stir up the better for them since they have nothing positive to offer except empty promises. At best they will get more BLM, antifa riots. If they lose the midterms though their power will be substantially weakened.
Ultimately they want a total collapse of the economy so they can declare emergency powers like Hitler did and then usher in their Euro commie world government lock down and surveillance of everything. When everyone faces the loss of their livelihoods and are facing actual starvation the people will turn to Big Brother to save them. The solution to all of their problems will be Klaus Schwab’s globalist dystopia where Klaus says “You will own nothing and you will be happy.” Look up Hegel’s Problem-Reaction-Solution strategy. This is the globalist playbook for everything they do. They want to rule the world. But they want their victims to literally beg for them to take over. Violent conquests are so last century. They just don’t have the manpower. But if we give them total control of our lives and they can control everything we see and hear they can establish a technocracy and rule over the world like kings.
If you look at all the hate and attacks they have unleashed on Elon Musk since he took over twitter it all makes sense because they have lost control over a major source of their propaganda. Free speech is poison for dictators which is why the democrat globalist puppets have weaponized the Federal security agencies against Musk and many others. They want to destroy Elon Musk while real criminals like Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Hunter Biden go free.
See
Elon Musk is under federal investigation over his Twitter deal, Twitter claims By Brian Fung, CNN Business Updated 8:06 PM EDT, Thu October 13, 2022
https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/tech/elon-musk-investigation-twitter/index.html
” […] If they actually tried a violent revolution they would be squashed like bugs. Not just by our military but by ordinary 2A Americans. And their cheerleaders the msm knows it. […]”
Most of what you say is quite true, but this (above) is most certainly not true. The MSM “jackals” (love it!) as you rightly call them, do NOT know this. If you paid careful attention them, you would see that they are really quite ignorant AND stupid. Remember their chagrin when Trump was elected?
What did ALL of them say REPEATEDLY? “I don’t even KNOW anybody who voted for Trump.” And they really didn’t. They actually think that they are in touch with things.
Sorry to disagree with you on this one point, but you are quite wrong about the MSM jackals. They are NOT intelligent OR well-informed, let alone “in touch” or realistic.
You are quite right “they are really quite ignorant AND stupid.”. What I should have said is their globalist puppet masters know this. The msm jackals are just the globalist mouthpiece doing what they are told. I often conflate the two. In any case there will be no calls for an actual violent revolution for the reasons I already gave. They will continue to go all out to stir up hatred and division. As the economy worsens and crime increases the globalists need a scapegoat to blame for all the problems they are causing and that according to the Biden democrats is ultra maga. As long as Americans are being deceived by the msm into blaming each other for all of these problems and not the globalists this sad puppet show will continue.
I tend to agree that an actual “Civil War” as defined is not as likely. We definitely have the “Red” vs. “Blue” mentality happening, but I don’t see it necessarily defined in geographic terms. Texas – sure. But even in Texas you have an intermingling of Red and Blue that doesn’t give a defined line of resistance. During the first civil war you had a large block of territory that was basically of “like mind” (the south) squared off against another large block of territory of basically “like mind” (the north). Yes, there were “border” states where the mix was confusing, but generally speaking you had two separate blocks with diametrically opposing ideas. If you want to bring this forward to the 20th century you will note that most countries that have endured civil war have relatively large expanses of territory occupied by one faction, facing off against another faction with similar large expanses of territory. I would point to Bosnia, or Lebanon, or even Cyprus to a certain extent. To put it simply – battle lines are clearly drawn. In the present condition in the U.S. we see strong Blue states, and strong Red states, but they are mixed in amongst each other. Even in strong Red or Blue states there is still a large percentage of opposing views, according to polling/voting numbers. Nowhere do you see the 80% across a large swath of the country that I feel would be needed to classify an area as a possible clearly defined battle line.
Now, having agreed with your basic premise, I will disagree with some of your other thoughts. The idea that ANY government has enough military power to completely control a population is wrong to my way of thinking. I’ll use Canada as an example, because I’m obviously familiar with it. We have a standing force of less than 80,000 personnel, and a population of over 30 million. That is not really enough manpower to even secure our major cities, let alone the country. Now I understand that the U.S. has a much larger well funded military, but I believe the same dichotomy applies. The other thing to take into account is that by the time that things deteriorate to this point (hyper inflation, financial collapse, civil unrest, etc.) how many of those military or law enforcement personnel will be willing to leave their families unprotected to report for duty, for money that can’t even buy them a loaf of bread?
Personally I see the breakdown, when it comes, being more of an across the board collapse. A return to pioneer times, with communities of like mind living in a fortress mentality. The cities will become a battleground for limited resources, while the more rural areas will “bunker in” and look after their own. Red or Blue, I don’t think that will matter as much as coming together with people you know, and putting the survival of the community ahead of political diatribe. It’s funny, but a situation like this will bring it all back to the basics, and get rid of a lot of the high-minded but unworkable ideals that we presently have. You don’t work – you don’t eat! It’s pretty simple. And you’d be surprised how fast things like race, creed, color, or sexual orientation cease to be important when you have to depend on that person to survive.
Maybe a lot of my ideas are coloured by my earlier years. I read a lot of William W. Johnstone. Ben Raines and the Tri-State mentality. Yep, it’s just cheap pulp fiction, but going back and re-reading some of those books shows an amazing amount of prescience on the part of the author, and often an uncanny resemblance to current events, all done tongue-in- cheek to a great extent.
Ah yes our younger years and the fine reading of William W. Johnstone. I have read the Ashes series several times and Ben Raines lives in all of us that believe in freedom and justice. Johnstone definitely saw the writing on the wall.
I personally share a mix of the views here and to be honest I don’t know how it will all play out. I will be honest though and say that maybe it’s just time. Time to let the chips fall where they may and with any luck from Out of the Ashes will come a renewed America that won’t set back on it’s laurels and become soft again. I have seen more war than I care to and lost many friends. I have 3 grandkids now and don’t wish this upon them in the least so if there’s to be a fight then let it be when I can still ruck up and do all the things a warrior should do to protect his family, his brethren, and his country.
Revolution: the overthrow or renunciation of one ruler or government and substitution of another by the governed…….civil war…..no you are right..
There is already a war on America, and those waging it are hoping it remains bloodless as long as possible.
“Evil Preaches Tolerance Until It Is Dominant Then It Tries To Silence Good” — Archbishop Charles Chaput
It won’t be a ‘war between the states’. There are a few (thankfully easy to identify and isolate) “dense” “Blue” areas that are undefendable, and their inhabitants are easily identifiable when they ‘scatter’.
NOTE: There has N E V E R been a period in human history where communism did not require violence to eradicate down to a kernel population. Don’t be fooled into thinking there would be a stand-alone case.
Joe R PLEASE expand on this thought:
It won’t be a ‘war between the states’. There are a few (thankfully easy to identify and isolate) “dense” “Blue” areas that are undefendable, and their inhabitants are easily identifiable when they ‘scatter’.
How will it be “Easy” to ID Blue inhabitants when they scatter out of the dense Blue areas (AKA Cities).
Isolating cities is easy in theory BUT look at where every highway and power line go through. Yep, the cities. No trucks means that the abundant food over there isn’t going to go to the other nonblue areas for food supply. No power means that communications as well as medical power needs will stop.
The Deep State intends to retain and expand their power. That’s the nature of government. If their plan is to reduce the number of useless eaters, then they will have to retain effective control of enough resources to keep their military loyal and useful.
Never assume your opponents are idiots. I fear the history of Bloody Kansas during the civil war is going to repeat over 50 states.
Michael,
I am not sure I am tracking you concerning the highways and power lines go through.
If I cut off the roads into the cities, no more food is going in. Most of beef, pork, chicken all come from smaller towns far from cities, that whole NIMBY thing. Same goes with the processing plants.
Same goes for electrical generation. Take CA for example. CA is the largest importer of electrical power in CONUS. It comes from hundreds (e.g. hydro power from WA and OR) or even thousands of miles (recall the Enron scandal?). We have a landfill energy production facility next county over. The power they produce, export to CT.
If the government is going to control resources to keep the military loyal and useful, they would need to secure places where the base resources are produced and processed. Places where the power is actually produced.
If the shooting has started, am I really going to make a go to a medical facility that may or may not have power, be even manned/open, or have the supplies for treatment? The nearest hospital to me is over 20 miles away. If the shooting has started, the JIT/BAU system failed, that hospital might as well as be on the moon.
Ist Marine if you blockade a city, it will devolve quickly into chaos.
Massive chaos not the controlled Antifa “Rioting” but actual destruction of structures chaos. Most grid power goes through cities as they are the prime users. Thus, grid system gets wacked to the harm of all the grid.
No Grid, loss of communications and the vast majority of fuel systems, even pipelines.
As a former OTR Trucker I can assure you in many cases the trucks have to go through or in the roundabouts (395’s etc.) of the cities. The secondary roads are not a good choice.
Thus, the plenty of corn HERE, vs the need for that corn there is going to be a real problem BEFORE we account for the Highway Man action so many “Preppers” talk about.
Cattle and hogs need to go to the processors, how? Then that meat needs to go to the “Non-Blue” areas, again how?
So easy trucking will be screwed. What trucker will want to leave their families to go OTR to seek a cargo to transport where FOR WHAT Paycheck?
We live in a tightly intertwined system that runs poorly even from bad weather. Now add Governmental chaos and war conditions.
Anybody that requires medication to survive are toast. Ask around how many Diabetics are in your circle. Most cannot be controlled with diet and exercise. That’s why it used to be a shortener of many a young person life. Heart meds, Anti-depressants (for “NORMAL” Stressors Now add War) are also very common but unmentioned between friends.
The %’s is much higher than you might realize. Some of them are your shooting buddies.
Population drop before violence will be epic over a few months.
BUT HEY! The World Economic Forum wants to kill off useless eaters and “we will own nothing and BE Happy”.
Maybe that’s the real reason to create chaos and civil war?
Joe R,
I agree with Michael in his observation,
“How will it be “Easy” to ID Blue inhabitants when they scatter out of the dense Blue areas (AKA Cities).”
How does one ID anyone is something me and my neighbors have discussed. Local from non-locals? Friendly from unfriendly?
Unique arm bands? Hats? Even kilts?
The few times I have been to Wally-World, I oft walk around and look at others and how do I determine anything from the socio-economic class (I mean dang, I saw some girls in what looked like their PJs), political affiliation, if they are pro 1stA, 2ndA, religious denomination, or heck even blood type?
Fabian, I would argue that Brasil is definitely NOT a third world country, but rather falls into the broad second world if not near first world status. I was raised in Belo during Kubicheck’s tenure and recognize the siren calls of socialism promising the poorer citizens all sorts of free stuff for their vote. Brasil has a successful aircraft manufacturing industry (Embraer) and many other businesses that rate highly. I wish we had Brasil on our southern border instead of Mehico.
I hear civil war talk only from one side. Sort of reminds of spoiled kid who will take the bat and ball away to spite everyone else. Do we have problems. Sure. Are they enough to kill fellow Americans. Not in the least bit. Thats what a civil war is. That you are willing to kill fellow Americans because they don’t agree with you.
I hear what your saying James, and I agree with the sentiment, but I do question whether or not it translates to real life. At this point in time you have a government that is more than willing to kill it’s own people in pursuit of an agenda. I need only reference the housing of Covid cases in senior’s homes (the most vulnerable to this pathogen). They have no problem with an open border that is allowing an almost free flow of fentanyl into the country, resulting in untold numbers of death, both from the drug itself, and collateral damage from the societal effects. When you have a government that seems to disregard the lives of its citizens how far are we from shots being fired in anger?
The present crime statistics are a clarion call that more and more, individuals are willing to resort to violence, and even murder against their fellow citizens. And this is just the start. A shortage of food, power, gas/diesel, continuing inflation, a crashing stock market, pensions going broke, high interest rates, people losing their jobs and their homes…….it will all contribute to people becoming more scared, and more desperate. The more desperate people become, the more desperate their actions.
….and expanding on this a bit, forcing people to take an experimental drug that has never been tested, and appears to be engineered specifically for killing human beings – makes it pretty obvious we have certain people in power who are already willing to kill its citizens to get what they want.
It’s not necessary to have a civil war in order to steal power. See this report about who rigged the recent election in Brazil (that sounds very much like the 2020 election in Amerika — by the same gang of thieves):
IT’S A COUP: TEAM BIDEN BRAGGED ABOUT RIGGING BRAZIL ELECTION AGAINST PRESIDENT BOLSONARO BEFORE ELECTION DAY, By Ali Alexander
Published October 31, 2022
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/10/coup-team-biden-bragged-rigging-brazil-election-president-bolsonaro-election-day-says-stop-steal-leader-ali-alexander/
Plus 616 comments.
PS: while it’s much easier to use “Reader Mode” that suppresses ads and related nonsense inside the article …unfortunately that also suppresses ALL of the comments. Choose wisely. You might also choose to use reader mode for only the article and then bail out of reader mode to see the many comments.
–Lewis
Anything would be a 21’st Civil war. For instance, living in the South now, how many are cybersecurity experts? Alot. Get them into a group then you have something. Attack the area with shutting down infrastructure, all utilities, military communications. Sit back and let them destroy themselves. No shot fired.
If pressed as others have said, the South is full of Vets, hunters and rednecks.
United we stand, divided we fall……excellent points you make 1969Bird….those currently holding power are doing everything they can to keep Americans divided, and divide them even more….they know that if we all unite, they are toast.
Remember, We the People are the government, not those we elect or who are appointed to act on our behalf.
Currently, no. … The left isn’t going to set down their phones, work at it for more than a few days, or hike and struggle through pouring rain with no comforts. Meanwhile, the right isn’t going to quit their jobs, leave their families, or risk missing “the game” over the weekend. So no, it currently it isn’t anything but an emotional fantasy on both sides. It’s going to take a lot more than being a bit pissed to get there.
The worldwide idiocies of the last few years are very similar to what is predicted in the book, “The Fourth Turning.” Fourth Turnings have always ended in war lasting five years or so, with enormous death ad violence. This American 4th turning started in 2008, and figures to become hot war in 2025 lasting until 2030–years being approximate.
We are certainly not primed for the explosion yet. But the weather engineers managed very severe droughts in every major food producing region in the world this year. There was 100-degree F weather in October in the American West–that is beyond merely bad weather. Well over 100 food warehouses have burned in the US this year. The food to feed the world simply does not exist. Therefore, prices are rising. This is blamed on “Biden,” (or his handlers) but Dems to the rescue! They will print money to pay their cronies again and some of it will go towards food stamps and other rescue handouts. Since the food itself doesn’t actually exist, that won’t feed anybody. It will just cause even higher prices. Expect starvation to death in much of the world this winter, and next year, expect Americans to starve to death.
We are a very spoiled nation. The explosion is coming.
Fuck you!!!! anybody living in a country that would elect that communist, corrupt asshole lulu has no business commenting even a single word about my beloved US of A. Eat Sh*t and burn in the communist hell you just made for yourself.
Brazil no more made Lulu for itself than America chose Biden and crew for itself. Mules, vote totals running backwards, where suddenly Biden’s total rose the exact number that suddenly disappeared from Trump, vans showing up at 3AM full of ballots, cardboard over the windows to prevent seeing your votes being counted, 100 people living at the same address, nonexistent address, on and on and on and on–nothing to see here…
So now we have child trafficking over the border and millions of military age males and destroyed food warehouses–we did not vote for this. Do we deserve it?
Good grief, Harold.
You realize the new president of Brazil won by ONE PERCENT of the vote? Hardly a margin that should condemn every person in the country.
And our beloved US of A is in dire straits. To ignore that is like that parent who says, “MY CHILD would NEVER do that” and refuses to listen to the principal despite all the evidence against little Johnny or Susie.
Fabian didn’t say anything insulting. You’re being ridiculous.
I think that a civil war in the US is not only possible, but very likely. The differences between those who want a socialist-globalist nation with government control over most, if not all aspects of people’s lives vs those who want to be governed strictly in accordance with the US Constitution and it’s amendments AS WRITTEN are simply unbridgeable.
Ironically, the author of this article had a prime example of what this civil war would probably look like in his own backyard. The nation of Colombia had a civil war known as “La Violencia” that lasted from 1948-1958, and it was fought largely between conservative and leftist paramilitaries and militias. Over 200,000 were killed, most of them innocent civilians.
I agree with Fabian. We’re going through civil unrest. True, MAGA is being politically persecuted but the true believers are a tiny minority. Others on the right never liked MAGA because it was vulgar and more importantly, totally ineffectual. Why risk everything for a loser? Civil war? Not a chance. Instead, smaller battles are being fought at the local level, around education, crime, gun control, and public health. Some battles won, some lost.
Overall, the trend is loss of freedom. This is par for course during the latter stages of a republic or empire. The final result is we’re becoming just another dysfunctional Latin American country, albeit the one with the best resources and quality of life. The young don’t remember the way it used to be, the high trust society with white picket fences and freedom. The young are being taught a new myth, how “we” defeated the autocratic racists in 2020 and became the Rainbow Nation 2.0. History will be whitewashed. It always is.
On the international level, we’re still the only game in town. Russia and China are in decline. Europe is downright geriatric but will probably hold together if it can stop migration and continue to milk what’s left of Pax Americana. I expect Southeast Asia to be a bright spot of relative peace and prosperity. Sorry for the black pill and cynicism. It’s just the way I see it.
Fabian my name is Mike
And with that said ONE PEOPLE are a Friendly people
To understand who ONE PEOPLE ARE
Is to answer the question you Wish to understand
UNCIVIL WAR
You think a civil war is the question an civil war is sides in uniform
UNCIVIL WAR is NO RULES
Today war without rules is Obvious with GERM WARFARE
Aka covid ,the jab shots aka WARP SPEED
UNCIVIL is what is todays MOB RULE aka Democracy
That is what both Poolitical bands aka donkeys an rinos are
And soon what is in the light of day EVIL in all capitals will
Attempt the SUM OF ALL FEARS
Literally right out of left field a very simple OUT GO THE LIGHTS
How it is done really no longer matters
But for certain it is What will HAPPEN
UNCIVIL IS FACT
Bottom LINE
AMERICANS have know since O DUMB ASS
EVIL is in season
Evil is in FOOL CON-troll
An this EVIL that is both Poolitical bandits
Showed itself with a very simple PROP
A MASK ????
NO BETTER FRIEND THAN A AMERICAN
No worse ENEMY
What to know about ONE PEOPLE
WE ONLY FEAR GOD
PSALM 91
The Soldier’s Prayer
The Declaration of Independence
Fabian ONE PEOPLE are very real an very patient suffering evil is real
BUT GOD showed ONE PEOPLE
The Truth O So long AGO
A WARRIOR KING IS COMING he will find AMERICANS
TRAMPLE THE DRAGON
I think kinetic Civil War is unlikely unless and until the police state is sidelined by systemic bribery or general devastation from outside forces. The elites can make either scenario happen, but won’t do so unless their more passive methods (pandemics, social engineering) fail to acheive their goals. The passive methods are working so far as witnessed by the shot-taking, mask-wearing normies. So long as the elites can control the system of priveledges and distribution of wealth, they do not need a civil war.
I doubt that there will be a civil war for one thing most Americans are too soft they don’t want to loose their easy life that is why they are mad at the dem/communists .The communists want the good life but not for the peons and have demonized the republicans for years and a lot of the peons believe their BS,Something will have to change the country can not get out from under the huge debt the communists and the RINOs have stuck us with probably what will happen is a economic collapse .
in the u.s., the average white is age 63, the average black is age 23, the average mexican is age 9.
the u.s. imports something like .8 of everything it needs to function as a nation, and it’s primary export is newly-printed dollars. should imports cease, the u.s. has no fallback infrastructure and few manufacturing capabilities remaining.
there won’t be any kind of war here. maybe a lot of shooting here and there for a short time, but no war.
First – Civil rights and constitutional unalienable rights are much different.
Second – Our alienable rights have been transformed into privilege’s which gives the authority to deny such rights.
Our constitutional unalienable rights are Life, Liberty and Property. These are a gift from the creator and can not be adjudicated or taken away. If one of these are removed, the others fail also.
Liberty is free will, free expression and protection of one’s thoughts, beliefs or opinions without interference. When these groups of people (LGBQ, Antifa, BLM) Politicians, Elite, secret societies or UN force their thoughts, beliefs or opinions on you by passing laws, executive orders, statutes, ordinances Etc.. , they are IN FACT denying one Liberty. Words or speech is an expression of thought, typically a product of family values and the designed society. When this becomes criminal they are IN FACT denying one Liberty.
These entities, specifically written in the constitution, defines them as Tyrants. The constitution specifically gives, We The People, the authority, jurisdiction and justification to rid ourselves of such tyrants, foreign or domestic. This is why we also have the specific alienable right to be armed.