A total economic and social collapse is a catastrophic event characterized by the widespread dysfunction of critical systems, including government, economy, infrastructure, and basic services. While such a scenario is extreme, recognizing early warning signs can be crucial.
I have been monitoring the Cuba scenario. To me, that is the definition of a failed State holding to the remains of a collapsed country ruled by thugs terrified of a popular armed uprising. As our economy was destroyed by design, to control the population and crush the opposition among other goals, I believe I can describe the indications better than someone who never watched this happening.
In my research, a few events arose, as expected. Nevertheless, there were a couple of not-so-evident things that I’m going to point out.
By now, most of you reading this are very much aware of the loom and doom that destroyed the Venezuelan economy, and even these days, we feel panic every time the exchange rate with the USD changes.
For this past month (Oct. 2024), it went up 13%.
Enough to shake many people and make others begin thinking again about migrating.
Meanwhile, we have a single-digit “growing”, and a 50% inflation…in USDs. (This year!)
It is awesome to see how, despite oil production increasing at a snail’s pace, inflation seems to be looming again. It has been up almost 15% since 2022.
Here are some key indicators:
Economic Indicators
- Hyperinflation: Uncontrolled inflation that rapidly erodes the value of currency. Shortly after the bus driver got into the Palace we started to see how our currency started this infamous process. This was so severe that it wiped off most of the wealth and living standards. We haven’t been able to recover it ever since 2015 when it started. This is so self-explanatory that there is not too much need for further discussion.
- Commodity Shortages: Severe shortages of essential goods like food, water, and fuel. At the present moment, supermarkets are overflowing with all kinds of products. Of course, getting the money to buy them is the hard part. Most of them come from Brazil, for the sake of money laundering schemes related to gold, and the fees charged by the concession of the narcotics trafficking routes control to the “producers”. But can’t prove it though.
- Mass Unemployment: it occurs when a significant portion of a nation’s workforce is unable to find suitable employment. Here, “suitable” refers to jobs that align with an individual’s existing skills and experience. Unemployment in large amounts, is often viewed as a symptom of a deeper malaise within a society. It can serve as a powerful indicator of a nation’s economic health and can signal the onset of more severe societal problems. Mass unemployment is a financial issue at its core. When a large number of people are out of work, it has a ripple effect throughout the economy. Consumer spending decreases as people have less disposable income. Businesses are forced to lay off more workers because of the decline in demand, in a downward spiral.
- Recession/Depression: This can lead to a recession or even a depression, depending on the severity and duration of the unemployment. The effect of mass unemployment deteriorates the nation’s tax base. With fewer people working and paying taxes, governments have less revenue to fund essential services like education, healthcare, and infrastructure. This can lead to a decline in the quality of life for citizens and further erode the nation’s competitiveness. The social consequences of mass unemployment are equally profound. High unemployment rates are often associated with increased crime rates, societal unrest, and political instability.
- Uptick in property crime: When people are searching for work without success, they may turn to desperate measures to support themselves and their families. I have seen this happening. This means an increase in property crime, drug use, and other serious antisocial behaviors. We have experienced first-hand how mass unemployment is eroding the social cohesion. It is not as if we had faith in the ruling gang to begin with, but re-engineering of our social fabric executed by Cuban agents made it much worse. This led to a breakdown of social trust and made it difficult for communities to come together to solve problems. Mass unemployment can have a significant impact on a nation’s political landscape, and Venezuela is (sadly) one of the most relevant examples in modern History. Discontent with the handling of the economy can lead to political instability and even regime change (as it is already happening, happily!). Populist politicians often exploit the economic anxieties of unemployed workers to gain power, promising easy solutions to complex problems.
- Unsustainable Debt: A national debt that exceeds a country’s capacity to repay. An enormous external debt has exacerbated Venezuela’s economic crisis. This situation brings along a payload of negative consequences that have made our circumstances even worse. Let’s define this: debt is considered unsustainable when a country is incapable of paying back the interest or principal on its loans. This situation is known to generate a crisis involving both economic and societal aspects. The government is then forced to allocate a large portion of its resources to debt service, rather than investing in areas such as health, education, and infrastructure.
Traditionally, our country has experienced a weakness in the public sector regarding these three areas mentioned above. The trend then goes downhill with time, as the real responsible for the crisis are those controlling all the aspects of the public financial system, including the monetary policy. There are no experts that want to be involved in that mess, by the way; most of the “official” public “servants” with middle rank and choice makers don’t have neither the skills nor the will to do something to improve the situation. Their only goal is to perform as financial operators to help them in the cover-ups. The 100% control of the price of the USD is what makes our Central Bank a joke.
- Financial Market Collapse: The collapse of stock markets and a general loss of confidence in financial institutions. Mind you, in the most recent post-apo movie that sparkled our interest in one of the streaming sites, one of the main characters could read something was happening…in the charts of the stock exchanges of the world. I have read some good fiction, and it’s quite interesting to see how some of the characters are related to the financial world and can read the writings and make some predictions.
Social Indicators
- Increased Violence: crime, civil unrest, and social conflict are (obviously) among the most visible.
As a side note, why wait for this to happen? Any sane prepper should know that leaving early to avoid a potentially harmful situation is the way to go. You don’t have a place to Bug Out? Can you Bug in safely for a while until things clear up? Can you Bug out at all? Include here the State-sponsored actions to “pacify” the country and you will see how advanced the collapse is. Another failed State that we should be looking at is Cuba. The collapse is total there. Over one million people left in 2023 only.
Add this book to your library to keep all the Organic Prepper articles on dangerous times in your library.
- Mass Migration: A large-scale exodus of people seeking better living conditions. I consider this as the most painful indicator. Being part of these statistics, I can say I share encountered feelings regarding this. This is not only the most painful but the most visible. If things were livable, people wouldn’t flee away.
- Family Breakdown: A rise in family disintegration and social issues like poverty, mental health issues like depression, and substance abuse. Another catastrophic effect of all the circumstances mentioned above.
- Infrastructure Collapse: Failures in essential services such as electricity, water, and sanitation.
- Erosion of Trust: A widespread loss of confidence in government, businesses, and other institutions. This should have disappeared in Venezuela like back in the early 60s. The influence of the red Caribbean gang dates from that era, indeed.
Political Indicators
- Political Instability: Weak governance, frequent regime changes, and internal conflict.
- Corruption: Widespread corruption at all levels of government.
- Human Rights Abuses: Restrictions on freedom of speech, political persecution, and state-sponsored violence.
Environmental Indicators
- Environmental Degradation: Severe pollution, deforestation, and biodiversity loss.
- Resource Depletion: Scarcity of essential resources like water and energy.
- Natural Disasters: Increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters.
It’s crucial to note that these indicators often interact and can exacerbate one another.
A total collapse is typically a gradual process, marked by a series of interconnected events. It won´t be like your typical Hollywood collapse, where the family is someday having dinner or hanging out in a mall and the next fighting for survival with a horde of…whatever your favorite monster is.
While it may seem like a distant possibility, understanding the warning signs can help mitigate risks and prepare for potential challenges.
This is not intended to be a political article; on the contrary.
I found it amazing to learn that a war does not have to be necessarily declared; it can unfold without such formalities.
If it’s like this, then I’m afraid we should be pretty much aware of the facts, and the actions of everyone involved in such plays; and pay much less attention to the biased mainstream media nonsense.
Thanks for your reading, and your much-needed donations and sponsoring.
Stay safe, and keep tuned.
J.
What do you think?
Which, if any, of these signs have you seen in your area? Do you think our economy is too far gone to be saved?
Let’s discuss it in the comments section.
About Jose
Jose is an upper middle class professional. He is a former worker of the oil state company with a Bachelor’s degree from one of the best national Universities. He has an old but in good shape SUV, a good 150 square meters house in a nice neighborhood, in a small but (formerly) prosperous city with two middle size malls. Jose is a prepper and shares his eyewitness accounts and survival stories from the collapse of his beloved Venezuela. Jose and his younger kid are currently back in Venezuela, after the intention of setting up a new life in another country didn’t go well. The SARSCOV2 re-shaped the labor market and South American economy so he decided to give it a try to homestead in the mountains, and make a living as best as possible. But this time in his own land, and surrounded by family, friends and acquaintances, with all the gear and equipment collected, as the initial plan was.
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Excellent article. I wonder what you and Jose think of Argentina’s new President Milei. I like him and think he’s putting Argentina on the right track. Any chance of Venezuela electing someone similar, or has the corruptions gone too far.
I am only answering for myself and part of this is based on how much the establishment hates him, but I think President Milei seems great!
And funny!
Robert Heinlein wrote a book back in the 1980’s called “Friday” which had a lot about the collapse of civilization.
In it he wrote that the erosion of common, everyday politeness was a key indicator of a collapsing society.
I think we have seen that in the USA for quite some time.
Our economy is actually very strong. Americans are just very spoiled and don’t know how to do without trivial luxuries. The average house was less than 600 square feet in the 1950’s and families had only one car. No wonder they could afford to let the wife stay home! A man can still support a family today in a 1950’s style lifestyle. Truthfully, it was a happier lifestyle–I am so old I remember.
And I remember when girls guarded their “reputation” and kept their legs closed. Today’s girls are taught to be whores and the abortion issue, and election of Trump are seen as a lack of respect for women. We MUST have compassion on these agonized liberal women, and teach them how 1950’s women got much more respect (and sex, btw) than today. You cannot recover your virginity–but you CAN recover your chastity. Importantly, nobody disrespects womanhood more than today’s “feminism.” Women are only any good if they are men. In employment, in sexual activity, and personality. We are as male as you are. In the 1950’s, the female was seen as having different talents than men–and put on a pedestal for it. Ladies first.
If you think todays economy is good, you haven’t spent a dime in the last four years.
Blessings,
OD
When the mammoth sized Soviet Union finally collapsed it had been through multiple currency devaluations. People who had summer cottages (called dachas) learned to grow food in their backyards. The media and government schools in such countries never tell the truth about inflation. When only a few goods go up in price it’s usually a market place phenomenon. However when prices go up across the whole economy it’s usually the government looting the purchasing power of the money by counterfeiting. Historically that was a death penalty offense when committed by individuals (including in the US) but when a central bank is created by government to do the same thing … the population has no easy way to hold it accountable and punish it.
Typically such counterfeiting (to steal money’s purchasing power) is usually to fund warfare and welfare operations beyond what the published tax rates yield. The US presidential election in 1912 was rigged by secret British money so their favorite puppet Woodrow Wilson would win. Sadly that worked … and Wilson signed off on creation of the US federal reserve (our counterfeiting central bank). He signed off on a constitutional amendment that ripped states’ power to appoint and recall US senators and turned their selection into election competition that became auctions among oligarchs for campaign money. Wilson also shut down most (not quite all) of the 30-some newspaper ads the German government had paid for across America to warn Americans not to sail on the passenger liner Lusitania in 1915 because it would be carrying secret munitions (illegal under international law for non-combatants). Even though Wilson was trying to maximize the number of Americans to be murdered when that ship would be torpedoed … it wasn’t enough to convince Americans that we had any good reason to join the European civil war in progress (later to be called World War I). Later after Wilson found other reasons to involve America in that war … the federal reserve’s counterfeiting raised prices across the US economy by about 15%. That set the pattern for federal spending ever since and by the time of today’s Biden administration … irresponsible spending was adding another trillion dollars in debt every 100 days or so.
One of the American founders, John Adams, said that our constitution is fit only for a moral people. Sadly when politicians with zero morals gain power (and money is sadly converted to fiat) even if it takes multiple lifetimes … fiat money is always eventually destroyed — with thousands of years of no exceptions.
–Lewis
Yes, those definitely are signs things are eroding but I have been hearing this all my life and even in my father’s life but it has never happened.
That does not mean it will never happen but we have recovered here and there and life goes on….